Showing posts with label Economist. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economist. Show all posts

Thursday, April 27, 2017

Minimize Contagion & Impact of "Non-Credible" News? An Open Source Idea for a Pragmatic yet Audacious Project To Support Democracy

Executive Summary: News and journalistic organizations believe that "non-credible" news will invariably seek to impact key democratic processes like elections across democratic societies going forward. Case in point: France. Some approaches have already been implemented by Facebook, Google and news organizations. Can a digital approach (project?) become part of democratic institutions that support a democratic society? 

Yes! Below is one approach to protect democratic processes digitally- implementable in many ways, open sourced, free to use as necessary in your part of the world. Details of this approach have been continually fleshed, augmented and shared since late 2016. From the desk of no-substitute-for-transparent-democratic-institutions-and-journalistic-standards-but-there-are-still-gaps.

Why Now?

Some would argue that fake news has always been part of elections. Even the U.S. founding fathers engaged in leveraged untruths.

What's different now?

The hypotheses that are our baseline assumptions:

  • Fake news by existing stakeholders in a society did not have the contagion powers it has today. 
  • Foreign powers, and parties influenced by foreign operators in any democratic society, can now frequently and easily access asymmetric information contagion tools and their associated effects at a level previously unavailable as societies were not as interconnected digitally. 
  • Separately, democratic institutions across the world have been undermined, which has a multiplier effect on asymmetrical power that a non-credible information contagion can wield.


So, We Have A Problem? Houston, We Have a Problem!

Yes, voila, some information to support the contention that we have a problem:

  • A story by the Independent on the possible deluge of fake new stories in France: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/french-voters-deluge-fake-news-stories-facebook-twitter-russian-influence-days-before-election-a7696506.html
  • An ABC story on tech driven fake news possibly influencing the US election: http://abc7.com/politics/russia-used-tech-fake-news-to-influence-us-election-expert-tells-senate-committee/1826410/
  • A Vice news story about a "fake new machine" targeting the French elections: https://news.vice.com/story/russias-fake-news-machine-is-now-targeting-the-french-election
  • An Oxford study on fake news and the French election reported by the Verge: http://www.theverge.com/2017/4/21/15381422/france-fake-news-election-russia-oxford-study


What Has Been Done So Far?

Some solutions have been put in place. there has been an improved focus on fact checking. The press and also social media and digital behemoths like Google and Facebook have taken the actions toward being effective corporate citizens in ways that also strengthens their business.
  • Facebook and Google have already implemented tools and processes to delegitimize non-credible news: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2017/04/25/google-overhauls-search-algorithm-bid-fight-fake-news/
  • Facebook and Google are partnering with news organizations: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-election-facebook-idUSKBN15L0QU
  • Journalism organizations are taking action too: http://researchguides.journalism.cuny.edu/factchecking_verification_fakenews
The problem is not easily solvable though:
http://fortune.com/2017/03/29/facebook-google-fake-news/


Is Digital Action Needed, and Enough?

No. Digital action is no substitute for democratic and journalistic institutions, even if they have been undermined by internal social, economic and political forces. Are these institutions active, responsive and keeping pace with the digital change flooding society?

The true ring fences for any democratic society:
1. The Executive- Federal and State
2. The Legislature- Federal and State
3. The  Judiciary- - Federal and State
4. Strong and Free Press
5. Engaged and Skeptical Citizens

If nothing else, the media, upon self-reflection, would agree that #4 has been severely compromised. They've been impacted by the same digital forces that have become risks to democratic processes- there was even a movie about this; more from a previous post here:
http://insightplusideas.blogspot.com/2011/07/news-new-york-times-and-movie-about.html

This is not solved just by funding journalistic and media institutions (reference here to great journalistic institutions like the New York Times, the Atlantic, the Economist, Financial Times and others) that, as individual organizations, would have challenges with *fully* and *comprehensive* representing any richly diverse (viewpoints or other) democracy, regardless of their adherence to journalistic standards and to a mission that supports society's "growth".

I can attest to listening to the personal (and harrowing) story of an editor of a Philly newspaper who moved on to managing content for a small pharma company. A story told over lunch. Neither of us were really having lunch and I suspect neither of us had appetite for lunch after. Here is more food for thought:
https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/04/how-americas-coastal-cities-left-the-heartland-behind/478296/

Even if we doubt that these ring fences are no different that they used to be two hundred years ago, they are uniquely threatened by the digital nature of a more complex society today. Even with strong local and state institutions a strong local press, and locally active and organized citizens, a digital forum that allows these institutions to weave together, be aware of and respond to digital threats from non-credible information may now be a critical need.

This leads us to a need for a separate digital forum that sheds light on "non-credible" information that impacts citizens and democratic processes and allows them to react.

The assertion, in conclusion: No, what has been done so far is not enough. Yes, more, on many fronts, especially digital, is needed.

Succinctly: We are at "necessary, not sufficient". We would be remiss to not pursue a digital framework.

What Can A Society Do Digitally?

Below is a digital approach that supports the creation of another ring fence to augment those that have already been acknowledged as core for democratic societies for a long time.

The focus is to foster transparency on non-credible information available to people in a society, and to foster channels, forums, tools and pathways for democratic institutions and people to swiftly counteract the effects of non-credible information on the democracy.

democracy, news and facts support democracy digitally
A Project to Support Democracy and Transparency Digitally


Why Open Source?

  • It's an idea.
  • A functioning democracy requires a panoply of processes, institutions and approaches. This is one. 
  • It can be implemented in many ways. 
  • The focus is on post facto management of response to "non-credible" news contagion- this is a non trivial problem.
  • It requires strong partnerships across companies and existing democratic institutions. 
  • It requires vision and long term support and action. 
  • As an engaged human being on this planet, I will be glad to support anyone who can run with this.
  • Even if it fails, this is an experiment we would be remiss to not try. 
  • Feel free to contact me for more information.


Note: This approach has been shared previously (early 2017) in various forums and individually with folks and startups seeking to solve this problem. This approach follows a clear path from questions about transparency with democratic institutions and processes that gripped a nation's consciousness in late 2016, and has been continually fleshed and augmented with more public information updates since late 2016. Separately, I am glad to see the press and social media and digital behemoths like Google and Facebook take the actions they have. They are being effective corporate citizens in ways that also strengthens their business.



Sunday, August 7, 2011

US Credit Rating Downgrade- The S&P AA+ Club

Executive Summary: Standard and Poor's downgrade of the US credit rating can be evaluated in terms of signaling power, economic comparisons of countries, and a review of the members of the S&P AA+ rating club. We take a brief look at two countries with sovereign debt ratings the same as that of the United States. From the Desk of If-It-Talks-Like -A-Duck-But-Does-Not-Walk-Like-A-Duck... What do you do? Worry about a double dip instead!

For a little while, folks were focused on the possibility of the US economy slipping back into a recession. Then, Standard and Poor's downgraded the US Credit Rating to AA+. There are various ways to review the implications of this move. Below are three. We take a quick look at two countries in the S&P AA+ club. This is just a quick look, since my take is that the core focus needs to be the possibility of a double dip recession.

1. Signaling Power:

Review and compare economic fundamentals across the OECD and come to your own conclusion on whether this credit rating event is a response to an economic reality that have already been factored in by the market, or this rating provides new information (broadcasts a new signal?) to the market that needs an economic reaction.

Here is a scenario analysis of the downgrade's impact on U.S. based financial institutions sectors:
http://swampland.time.com/2011/08/06/sp-downgrades-itself/

Here is another view of the impact of this downgrade:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/07/usa-ratings-financialsystem-idUSN1E7760AD20110807

2. Relative Macroecnomic Performance:

Review relative economic fundamentals across the globe, and reevaluate if there is a relative change in the US economy vis-a-vis the rest of the global economies, and if there is an across-the-board change in a set of economies across the global.

Here is Standard and Poor's view of the European economies and that the US credit rating downgrade means for them:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44053959

At the bottom of this article below is an opinion of the coupling of the APAC region economy with the US economy:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/07/us-global-economy-weekahead-idUSTRE77628V20110807

3. Review Members of the Standard & Poor's AA+ Credit Rating Club:

To get started, here is S&P's sovereign ratings page:
http://www.standardandpoors.com/ratings/sovereigns/ratings-list/en/us/;jsessionid=6TZhT1HpLpw3Slb1QjJZM1NR4wLTThcH4MfNp4JHbLZcGVHG0yhL!603717864?subSectorCode=39&start=100&range=50

Let's review two members of this club:
1. Belgium:
Here are some quick statistics on Belgium:
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/be.html

Belgium set a record for the number of days without a government. If you think there's a message in there about fractious politics, here an extract about Belgium as a poster child from the Economist:

“Most surprising, perhaps, maddeningly ungovernable Belgium is being held up by many as a model for debt-crippled euro-zone governments.”http://www.economist.com/node/18988904?story_id=18988904&fsrc=rss

If you thought Texas was its own country, here are more details on the political stress and strains at work in the country:
http://www.economist.com/node/18988904?story_id=18988904&fsrc=rss

You could also review Belgium's interest rates in the context of the European Central Bank long-term interest rate statistics for member states.
http://www.ecb.int/stats/money/long/html/index.en.html

In contrast to the Economist article about Belgium a few weeks ago, the Wall Street Journal reports growing concerns about Belgium's borrowing costs:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904007304576494042192351786.html

Les Belges thought setting a record for existing without a government was worth a party:
http://www.france24.com/en/20110217-belgium-world-record-longest-period-without-government-iraq-election

If you were Belgium, what would you do?

What do you think?

2. New Zealand:

Here is the NZ treasury's review of the NZ economy:
http://www.treasury.govt.nz/economy/overview

The factbook (https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/nz.html) tells me that New Zealand has the following key industries:
Food processing,
Wood and paper products,
Textiles,
Machinery,
Transportation equipment,
Banking and insurance,
Tourism,
Mining

New Zealand's economy is coupled to the Australian economy, and you may review the industry sectors to understand weaknesses in the economy relative to the other members of the AA+ club. This would be my starter list:
- Banking and insurance,
- Textiles,
- Machinery.

While you are at it, here is New Zealand's reaction to the United States joining the AA+ club:
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110806-700118.html

If you were New Zealand, how would you react?

What do you think?

Saturday, July 9, 2011

News, New York Times, and a Movie about Publishing

Executive Summary: A review of "Page One: Inside the New York Times"- a documentary that provides an inside view of a market leader in publishing through some changes in the industry. From the desk of If-It-Sounds-Like-the-NYT-But-Reads-Like-Twitter, It-Really-Isn't-A-Documentary, It-Is-A-Reality-TV-Show.

Introduction

The last time I posted about a movie was the opening weekend of Iron Man, over 3 years ago. This one is about "Page One: Inside the New York Times", a "fly on the wall" account of a desk at the New York Times.

The Key Theme: Challenges

The movie gets three challenges facing the New York Times right:

1. A Market Leader's Core Differentiation in a Seemingly Fragmented Ecosystem:
Where does the paper, and in comparison, the rest world, stand on news accountability, quality, objectivity, and transparency? The movie touches upon the difference between Journalism and activism, in the Wikileaks context.

2. The Survival of Publishing as a Well Oiled "Machine", and Its Metamorphosis :
The documentary covers Der Spiegel, Guardian and NYT partnering with WikiLeaks, and alludes to the shifting sands of the publishing ecosystem where a publisher could be a source.

3. Funding to Sustain a News Enterprise:
It touches upon the launch of the metered paywall at NYT (in line with the FT, and the Economist).

Finally...  The Opinion

As for the documentary experience, it stays true to the fly on the wall theme. Its like what reading Twitter is to reading the NYT. However, it does a great job of juxtaposing current changes in the industry impact the market leader, against its storied past.

If you are looking for more detail on the trends, you would be better served by visiting the Economist website (or reading this week's print edition) here:
http://www.economist.com/node/18904136. More on that to follow.

At worst, you may end up feeling like you watched some reality TV about a desk at the NYT, and even then, you will find a memorable line or two. "A textured life", for one.

What do you think? If you saw the movie, what did you think?

Sunday, January 24, 2010

Economic Recovery Patterns and Globally Divergent Challenges to Recovery

Executive Summary: Some interesting ideas, including one by Stiglitz (link below) were proposed to manage the global financial crisis. How do those ideas look now? Do we have a path to "full" recovery yet?

Solutions and Paths to Recovery
I had talked about an interesting article by Stiglitz toward a co-ordinated approach to the global financial crisis below:
http://randomjunkyramblings.blogspot.com/2009/01/stiglitz-wrote-interesting-article-in.html

Globally Divergent Challenges to Recovery
The Economist had two articles, below, on paths to recovery that add more perspective to Stiglitz's article:
The Great Stabilisation
http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15127608
Leaders and laggards
http://www.economist.com/businessfinance/PrinterFriendly.cfm?story_id=14816736


What do you think?



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Thursday, September 25, 2008

Financial Crisis: Economists comment

If, like me, you would like to hear what seasoned economists think about the current financial crisis, below is an interesting site called The Economists' Voice:
http://www.bepress.com/ev/

Its a subscription site- however, the individual subscription fee does not cost an arm and a leg.

It was shortlisted for the best new journal here:
http://www.alpsp.org/ngen_public/default.asp?ID=251#new

Many thanks to Lori Sullivan for sharing the site.