tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-39039833637986465152024-03-14T00:45:18.912-07:00Mohit Garg : Insight + IdeasBusiness and Markets. Trends and Behavior. Random thoughts. Quick Scribbles.<br>
Drink from the wells of knowledge. Dive into the ocean of experience.<br>
Ready, Steady, Go?Mohithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09009295797075239480noreply@blogger.comBlogger106125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3903983363798646515.post-18886851218984213942017-04-27T14:30:00.000-07:002017-04-27T14:32:01.312-07:00Minimize Contagion & Impact of "Non-Credible" News? An Open Source Idea for a Pragmatic yet Audacious Project To Support Democracy<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<i><b>Executive Summary: </b>News and journalistic organizations believe that "non-credible" news will invariably seek to impact key democratic processes like elections across democratic societies going forward. Case in point: France. Some approaches have already been implemented by Facebook, Google and news organizations. Can a digital approach (project?) become part of democratic institutions that support a democratic society? </i><br />
<i><br /></i>
<i>Yes! Below is one approach</i><i> to protect democratic processes digitally</i><i>- implementable in many ways, open sourced, free to use as necessary in your part of the world. Details of this approach have been continually fleshed, augmented and shared since late 2016. From the desk of no-substitute-for-transparent-democratic-institutions-and-journalistic-standards-but-there-are-still-gaps.</i><br />
<br />
<b>Why Now?</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Some would argue that fake news has always been part of elections. Even the U.S. founding fathers engaged in leveraged untruths.<br />
<br />
What's different now?<br />
<br />
The hypotheses that are our baseline assumptions:<br />
<br />
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>Fake news by existing stakeholders in a society did not have the contagion powers it has today. </li>
<li>Foreign powers, and parties influenced by foreign operators in any democratic society, can now frequently and easily access asymmetric information contagion tools and their associated effects at a level previously unavailable as societies were not as interconnected digitally. </li>
<li>Separately, democratic institutions across the world have been undermined, which has a multiplier effect on asymmetrical power that a non-credible information contagion can wield.</li>
</ul>
<br />
<br />
<b>So, We Have A Problem? Houston, We Have a Problem!</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Yes, voila, some information to support the contention that we have a problem:<br />
<br />
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>A story by the Independent on the possible deluge of fake new stories in France: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/french-voters-deluge-fake-news-stories-facebook-twitter-russian-influence-days-before-election-a7696506.html</li>
<li>An ABC story on tech driven fake news possibly influencing the US election: http://abc7.com/politics/russia-used-tech-fake-news-to-influence-us-election-expert-tells-senate-committee/1826410/</li>
<li>A Vice news story about a "fake new machine" targeting the French elections: https://news.vice.com/story/russias-fake-news-machine-is-now-targeting-the-french-election</li>
<li>An Oxford study on fake news and the French election reported by the Verge: http://www.theverge.com/2017/4/21/15381422/france-fake-news-election-russia-oxford-study</li>
</ul>
<br />
<br />
<b>What Has Been Done So Far?</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Some solutions have been put in place. there has been an improved focus on fact checking. The press and also social media and digital behemoths like Google and Facebook have taken the actions toward being effective corporate citizens in ways that also strengthens their business.<br />
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>Facebook and Google have already implemented tools and processes to delegitimize non-credible news: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2017/04/25/google-overhauls-search-algorithm-bid-fight-fake-news/</li>
<li>Facebook and Google are partnering with news organizations: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-election-facebook-idUSKBN15L0QU</li>
<li>Journalism organizations are taking action too: http://researchguides.journalism.cuny.edu/factchecking_verification_fakenews</li>
</ul>
The problem is not easily solvable though:<br />
<div>
http://fortune.com/2017/03/29/facebook-google-fake-news/<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>Is Digital Action Needed, and Enough?</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
No. Digital action is no substitute for democratic and journalistic institutions, even if they have been undermined by internal social, economic and political forces. Are these institutions active, responsive and keeping pace with the digital change flooding society?<br />
<br />
The true ring fences for any democratic society:<br />
1. The Executive- Federal and State<br />
2. The Legislature- Federal and State<br />
3. The Judiciary- - Federal and State<br />
4. Strong and Free Press<br />
5. Engaged and Skeptical Citizens<br />
<br />
If nothing else, the media, upon self-reflection, would agree that #4 has been severely compromised. They've been impacted by the same digital forces that have become risks to democratic processes- there was even a movie about this; more from a previous post here:<br />
http://insightplusideas.blogspot.com/2011/07/news-new-york-times-and-movie-about.html<br />
<br />
This is not solved just by funding journalistic and media institutions (reference here to great journalistic institutions like the New York Times, the Atlantic, the Economist, Financial Times and others) that, as individual organizations, would have challenges with *fully* and *comprehensive* representing any richly diverse (viewpoints or other) democracy, regardless of their adherence to journalistic standards and to a mission that supports society's "growth".<br />
<br />
I can attest to listening to the personal (and harrowing) story of an editor of a Philly newspaper who moved on to managing content for a small pharma company. A story told over lunch. Neither of us were really having lunch and I suspect neither of us had appetite for lunch after. Here is more food for thought:<br />
https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/04/how-americas-coastal-cities-left-the-heartland-behind/478296/<br />
<br />
Even if we doubt that these ring fences are no different that they used to be two hundred years ago, they are uniquely threatened by the digital nature of a more complex society today. Even with strong local and state institutions a strong local press, and locally active and organized citizens, a digital forum that allows these institutions to weave together, be aware of and respond to digital threats from non-credible information may now be a critical need.<br />
<br />
This leads us to a need for a separate digital forum that sheds light on "non-credible" information that impacts citizens and democratic processes and allows them to react.<br />
<br />
The assertion, in conclusion: No, what has been done so far is not enough. Yes, more, on many fronts, especially digital, is needed.<br />
<br />
Succinctly: We are at "necessary, not sufficient". We would be remiss to not pursue a digital framework.<br />
<br />
<b>What Can A Society Do Digitally?</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Below is a digital approach that supports the creation of another ring fence to augment those that have already been acknowledged as core for democratic societies for a long time.<br />
<br />
The focus is to foster transparency on non-credible information available to people in a society, and to foster channels, forums, tools and pathways for democratic institutions and people to swiftly counteract the effects of non-credible information on the democracy.<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4t6sEdgC47_Fx-mpuLbm4ayz2TKb1yFPwvnCzt17E6tqQES2EPZ9Nfa74jp_fQ0EP-xDFgZZYKQN_1OGCaJj4KwBKxKIuI_Pg-YjtpNywfbhFoxvWrZVqKJjuAhZ_GzIwdY9HzKGUvMQ/s1600/Democracy+and+Facts+v1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="democracy, news and facts support democracy digitally" border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4t6sEdgC47_Fx-mpuLbm4ayz2TKb1yFPwvnCzt17E6tqQES2EPZ9Nfa74jp_fQ0EP-xDFgZZYKQN_1OGCaJj4KwBKxKIuI_Pg-YjtpNywfbhFoxvWrZVqKJjuAhZ_GzIwdY9HzKGUvMQ/s640/Democracy+and+Facts+v1.jpg" title="support democracy digitally" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A Project to Support Democracy and Transparency Digitally</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<br />
<b>Why Open Source?</b><br />
<br />
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>It's an idea.</li>
<li>A functioning democracy requires a panoply of processes, institutions and approaches. This is one. </li>
<li>It can be implemented in many ways. </li>
<li>The focus is on post facto management of response to "non-credible" news contagion- this is a non trivial problem.</li>
<li>It requires strong partnerships across companies and existing democratic institutions. </li>
<li>It requires vision and long term support and action. </li>
<li>As an engaged human being on this planet, I will be glad to support anyone who can run with this.</li>
<li>Even if it fails, this is an experiment we would be remiss to not try. </li>
<li>Feel free to contact me for more information.</li>
</ul>
<br />
<br />
<i>Note: This approach has been shared previously (early 2017) in various forums and individually with folks and startups seeking to solve this problem. This approach follows a clear path from questions about transparency with democratic institutions and processes that gripped a nation's consciousness in late 2016, and has been continually fleshed and augmented with more public information updates since late 2016. Separately, I am glad to see the press and social media and digital behemoths like Google and Facebook take the actions they have. They are being effective corporate citizens in ways that also strengthens their business.</i><br />
<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
</div>
Mohithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09009295797075239480noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3903983363798646515.post-26295055774555800702016-11-25T03:14:00.001-08:002016-11-27T12:33:03.502-08:00Business Planning with a Black Swan Event: Currency Policy Event and Macroeconomic Impact<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<i><b>Executive Summary:</b> </i><i>How does a global business make country specific plans in the face of black swan currency events? How do you cut through the noise and focus on the macroeconomic impact of a dramatic currency policy move in a BRIC country? Ask fundamental questions after thinking through the factors at play. Some quick Thanksgiving holiday thoughts. For quicker reading, skip the Background section and jump to Factors for key points. </i><br />
<br />
<b>Background</b><br />
<div class="graf graf--p" name="bb5a">
US economic trends and recent events have captured our attention. In these interesting times, we consider a currency policy black swan event and leverage that for some thoughts that may help you with business planning in these volatile times.</div>
<br />
What makes a black swan event? How about making specific currency notes- that make up a significant portion of notes in circulation- legal tender no more, at short notice? India took the dramatic step to 'demonetize' the existing 500 and 1000 rupee notes.<br />
<br />
As additional information, a blog post, by Larry Summers and Natasha Sarin, is here:<br />
http://larrysummers.com/2016/11/21/most-sweeping-change-in-currency-policy-in-the-world-in-decades/<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<b>Factors</b><br />
Now, the impact of this move needs to be assessed in terms of several factors:<br />
- Existing currency policy and economic context,<br />
- Consumer behavior and impact on share of wallet of goods and services for the near and long term,<br />
- Different strata of economic activity that make up the complex country, starting with digital economy versus lightly banked economy versus the cash economy versus the barter economy and their economic interactions, not just the taxed versus the un-taxed parallel economy,<br />
- Industry sectors, ranked by their dependence on the cash economy (do consumer discretionaries, cellphone and construction industries take a hit? For how long?),<br />
- Cash management approaches across industries,<br />
- Legal framework to deal with defaults, bankruptcies and working capital challenges,<br />
- Asset classes and impact to specific stores of value like the dollar and gold and potential 'microbubbles',<br />
- Banking and financials sector structure and fractional reserve systems trends,<br />
- Trade,<br />
- Global interconnections with other economies not explicitly identified from sectoral trade,<br />
- Currency exchange rates and the assets and factors backing and propping up a currency,<br />
- Monetary policy and implications of currency that ceases to exist and is no longer<br />
- Central banking tools and accounting for currency events,<br />
- Communication and planning for the event, including managing business and citizen concerns,<br />
- Social change implications of the event and associated hand holding of citizens,<br />
- Central bank, government, large banking and financial institution and industry co-ordination over operational aspects, processes and execution.<br />
<br />
<b>Key Questions</b><br />
There are a wide variety of views on this complex topic that may or may not cover all the factors outlined above. Regardless of the diversity of thought and ideas, here are three questions that may help start the conversation on potential outcomes:<br />
1. What is the risk, in %age terms, of the Indian economy (or large parts of the economy) going into deflation after the 'demonetization' move?<br />
2. What is the risk, in %age terms, of the Indian economy going into stagflation?<br />
3. What is the risk, in %age terms, of the Indian economy suffering some sort of a Japanese Lost Decade?<br />
<br />
These questions are a starter list to help us cut through the noise and identify potential, pragmatic outcomes of the dramatic currency policy decision. This may also form your framework for tweaking your business planning for 2017 for a BRIC economy.<br />
<br />
What do you think?<br />
<br />
Note: This post can also be found on Medium, here: https://medium.com/@insightplusidea/currency-policy-black-swan-and-macroeconomic-impact-5b56c25fe244#.3j594cf8l<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
</div>
Mohithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09009295797075239480noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3903983363798646515.post-59359886712454159652014-10-06T15:32:00.003-07:002014-10-06T16:29:26.136-07:00The Washington Post, the News Industry, Jeff Bezos, Martin Baron and Innovation in News- Driving Change in a Changing World<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<i><b>Executive Summary: </b>The Washington Post is neither an Amazon nor a Buzzfeed.
Below are some elements of building a distinctive news organization that Jeff
Bezos, Martin Baron and the news leadership would likely have considered at The
Washington Post. They are structured as a framework, and presented with a
parallel between building such a news organization and with managing innovation
in fast paced industries. The metrics and insights that you may develop from
these go a step beyond what the conventional audience, digital and social media
metrics can do for you. No industry jargon was harmed or involved in the making
of this quick essay. From the desk of A-Fine-Balance-between-High-Risk-Objectives-and-Metrics-For-Key-Results.</i> </div>
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Since Jeff Bezos bought The Washington Post last year, there
has been a lot of media conversation <a href="http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-10-06/jeff-bezos-plan-for-news-washington-post-becomes-an-amazon-product" target="_blank">here (Businessweek)</a> and <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2014/10/jeff-bezos-the-washington-post-111485.html" target="_blank">here (Politico)</a>
about the news organization's personnel changes and also about its direction.</div>
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The most recent and highly cited one has been an article by
David Carr of the New York Times
(See link: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/06/business/media/the-washington-post-regains-its-place-at-the-table.html ).
The Washington Post, driven by Martin Baron and the leadership team, can take
many paths towards building a distinctive news organization. For more about how New York Times handled its change, see here: http://goo.gl/7eSsQV</div>
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Let's address the elephant in the room.</div>
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<b>What did Jeff Bezos gain by buying The Washington Post?</b></div>
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Digital is here.</div>
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Digital is not going away.</div>
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Digital will grow without Jeff Bezos' involvement.</div>
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Regardless of any potentially larger, altruistic reasons to
own the newspaper that Jeff Bezos may share with the previous owners,
The Washington Post offers Jeff Bezos a digital insight into minds on the
Internet operating slightly higher up on <a href="http://psychology.about.com/od/theoriesofpersonality/a/hierarchyneeds.htm" target="_blank">Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs</a>, compared
to other websites. (Note: Maslow's Hierarchy is mentioned here only for simplicity- for a branding context, please feel free to refer to <a href="http://www.eurib.org/fileadmin/user_upload/Documenten/PDF/Merktrouw_ENGELS/t_-_Brand_Loyalty_piramide_van_Aaker__EN_.pdf" target="_blank">David Aaker's work here on the brand loyalty pyramid</a> and <a href="http://faculty-gsb.stanford.edu/aaker/pages/documents/BIBRefresher20095weeks.pdf" target="_blank">Jennifer Aaker's work here on building innovative brands</a>).</div>
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Additionally, while book publishing is a different animal
from news, building a distinctive news organization that thrives in a digital
world offers some transferable insights.</div>
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<b>The Framework.</b></div>
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The framework below is one way to think about the trade offs
involved in building a distinctive news organization. It offers a pathway to
out-of-the-box metrics and potential key results the new organization's
leadership could develop to manage a driven, aligned and responsive (towards
stated objectives, not reactive) organization. I list a few dimensions of this
framework to serve as guardrails.</div>
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<b>The Objective.</b></div>
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Let's set a broad goal/ initial objective of this thought
exercise for the Washington Post:</div>
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To build a widely read newspaper that has the sort of cache
in the mind of the reader that Apple has relative to its competitors. It becomes a leader in an ecosystem
for driving awareness, engagement and change, based on news elements, for the
reader.</div>
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How's that for a start?</div>
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You will note that the objective explicitly sets the
Washington Post a little higher on <a href="http://psychology.about.com/od/theoriesofpersonality/a/hierarchyneeds.htm" target="_blank">Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs</a> than
a content farm. (Note again: Maslow's Hierarchy is mentioned here only for simplicity- for a branding context, please feel free to refer to <a href="http://www.eurib.org/fileadmin/user_upload/Documenten/PDF/Merktrouw_ENGELS/t_-_Brand_Loyalty_piramide_van_Aaker__EN_.pdf" target="_blank">David Aaker's work here on the brand loyalty pyramid</a> and <a href="http://faculty-gsb.stanford.edu/aaker/pages/documents/BIBRefresher20095weeks.pdf" target="_blank">Jennifer Aaker's work here on building innovative brands</a>).</div>
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<b>The Dimensions</b></div>
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A few iterations through the structure below should yield some
quantifiable objectives as well.</div>
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<i><b>Dimension 1: Reader Impact Zones.</b></i></div>
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In terms of the reader, let's define how news may impact the
reader in the scope of his or her daily life. We shall describe these as
concentric circles.</div>
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<b><i>Immediate Zone: </i></b>The Giants winning the Superbowl is an
Immediate Zone impact. So is news of a regulation cutting your taxes in half.</div>
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<b><i>Near Network Zone: </i></b>News about quicker or easier access to
drugs for a sick relative would be a Near Network Zone impact.</div>
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<b><i>Overarching/ Distant Network Zone: </i></b>Immigration reform that
does not affect you directly, but is important to you as an issue, would have
an Overarching/ Distant Network Zone impact.</div>
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<i><b>Dimension 2: Type Reader Network Effect.</b></i></div>
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What kind of a reader network effect can a news story have?
We can draw from our experience of current metrics covering news, digital and
social media here.</div>
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<b><i>Awareness: </i></b>This would go beyond just how many readers have
read the news item on a topic (i.e. not just CPM as a sample metric).</div>
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<b><i>Engagement: </i></b>This is not just sharing on social media. This
may involve the number of thought leaders engaged in the conversation in and
around the news coverage. The news organization's leadership in facilitating
conversation across the ecosystem on the news topic.</div>
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<b><i>Change:</i> </b>Is there a change in the readership's views due to
this news topic coverage (if that is important? If not, why not?) A change in
law, as a direct effect of the new organization's leadership in news coverage,
would be an example of the change effect.</div>
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<i><b>Dimension 3: Timeline.</b></i></div>
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How long does the news coverage and its impact last.</div>
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<b><i>Thinsliced:</i> </b>Commentary on cat videos is an example.</div>
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<b><i>Short:</i> </b>From one to a few news cycles.</div>
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<b><i>Medium: </i></b>May require sustained effort towards engagement and
may lead to change.</div>
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<b><i>Long:</i> </b>Policy decisions that may change the nature of
society.</div>
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<i><b>Dimension 4: Originating, Curating and Funneling News Items
(a la Innovation).</b></i></div>
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Just as organizations realize that the next great disruptive
innovation may not arise in-house, news organizations would understand that
they may not always be at the center of the next 'greatest news story ever'.
How you manage origination, curation and funneling (you may replace funneling with
acceleration of news ideas, if you like) of news stories is important. What
percentage of ‘impactful’ stories would The Washington Post like to break?</div>
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<i><b>Dimension 5: Distribution.</b></i></div>
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Top two on this list would be partners, along with cross
medium, multichannel content and promotions.</div>
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Investigation into civil
forfeiture and also posting a John Oliver video on the same topic is a great
example of partner and cross medium thinking. See link: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/style-blog/wp/2014/10/06/watch-john-oliver-explain-civil-forfeiture-aggressive-police-procedures-on-last-week-tonight/</div>
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<b>Evaluate The Framework So Far</b></div>
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We can come up with a few more dimensions, however, let's
pause here. How does this help the editor and publisher? Here are questions
worth thinking about:</div>
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How many news items can the news organization run in a year
that string together into a medium term topic, which impact user views on the
topic, engage 50%+ of the thought leaders on the topic and lead to an actual
change in the life (say via a change in law) of the reader?</div>
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What is a sustainable frequency for these efforts?</div>
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Does a higher frequency of such efforts lead to increased
subscriptions and greater reader retention?</div>
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Does a reduction of thinslicing type of content (say
commentary on cat videos) lead to a reduction in traffic and hence a reduction
in audience engagement?</div>
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Can this reduction in audience engagement be offset by pushing
content through partners and other channels?</div>
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<b>Conclusion.</b></div>
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Building a distinctive news organization requires and
understanding of, and a sustained effort towards, the level of Maslow's
Hierarchy of Needs the employees, the readers, the industry and the news
organization as a whole, wants to operate at. Going by kudos from readers and
media watchers (David Carr at the New York Times), the leadership is showing
success at this. The dimensions and the framework shed light on some of the
challenges they deal with on a daily basis.
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What do you think?</div>
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Mohithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09009295797075239480noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3903983363798646515.post-67049271924327372512014-01-15T05:38:00.000-08:002015-10-12T14:35:13.262-07:00Pecan in Your Pie? Market Mechanics, Economics and Globalization<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<i></i><br />
<i>Executive Summary: Pecan pie is not quite apple pie, but it is as American as it comes. The humble pecan in your pecan pie may have a very interesting story to tell of growing up in a hot climate across the border, making it over in crowded containers, and finding its way to your plate through an oligopsony. An interesting tale about globalization. From the desk of A-Great-Story-From-2013-Is-Better-Told-Than-Never. Also, from the desk of Not-Quite-Bourdain-But-It-Will-Do.</i><br />
<br />
<b>Introduction</b><br />
<br />
Pecan pie is American. Pecans are also American. Mostly. The U.S. is the world's largest pecan producer. A significant quantity of pecans are also grown in Mexico though- in 2012, Mexican pecans were 70% of all U.S. pecan imports by dollar value. Bet you didn't know that. Why would someone in Mexico care to grow pecans? <br />
<br />
What follows is a structured account of a perception altering, freewheeling conversation about the humble pecan in your pecan pie: <br />
Where? A random rooftop bar in NYC on a Friday evening. <br />
Who? A friendly Mexican pecan farmer in town, with his brother, to soak in the U.S. Open.<br />
<br />
These insights (highlighted below in italics) into pecans from Mexico and the global pecan industry, covering markets, demand, supply, buyers, global trade, a decade long product horizon and a multi-decade pricing perspective, are from a random conversation with a Mexican farmer. Specific annual data points have been added to confirm insights from the one time conversation. Of course, not all aspects of the conversation made it to the blog.<br />
<br />
<b>Climate</b><br />
<br />
Pecans need hot and dry conditions to grow. They can be grown in regions approximating USDA hardiness zones 5 to 9, provided summers are also hot and humid. Depending on the variety, pecan trees require 205 to 233 frost-free days for the nuts to reach maturity, thus restricting pecan production to southern states in the U.S. Jimenez, Chihuahua in Mexico has the right conditions for it, and is close enough to America for Mexican farmers to nurture a source of revenue in the desert environment.<br />
<br />
Other countries producing pecans include Australia, Brazil, Israel, Peru, and South Africa.<br />
<br />
<b>Local Operating Conditions and Conditions</b><br />
<br />
Water is key to pecan farming. However, digging wells in the Mexican desert requires licenses. These local conditions and regulation, has directed Mexican farmers toward developing advanced irrigation systems.<br />
<br />
<i>Insight: Mexican irrigation systems thus need to be more advanced than those in the U.S.</i><br />
<br />
<i>Jimenez, Chihuahua in Mexico is about 200 miles from the U.S. border in Mexico and also contends with some of the socio-economic problems and strife seen at the U.S.- Mexico border.</i><br />
<br />
<b>Competitive Space</b><br />
<i><br />Insight: In 2012, Georgia led the U.S. in pecan production, with production for all pecans (improved varieties and native and seedling). </i><br />
<br />
Georgia's production reached 100 million pounds, followed by New Mexico at 65 million pounds, Texas at 55 million pounds, Oklahoma at 25 million pounds and Arizona at 20 million pounds. Production was up in each of these states except Georgia. (NASS 2013)<br />
<br />
<i>Insight: China is emerging as a strong buyer of pecans globally and seeks to develop local supply. Mexican farmers were not concerned about potential Chinese supply impacting global suppliers in the medium term, primarily due to the time it takes for pecan trees to mature.</i><i> </i><br />
<br />
<i>Insight: Grafted trees reach maturity by the seventh year (seedling trees require another 2-3 years), and most cultivars remain productive for decades when properly managed.</i><br />
<br />
<b>Buyers</b><br />
<br />
<i>Insight: There are five major buyers in America for pecans in the U.S., who exchange information on pecan supply, quality and pricing. This enhances their buying power in most situations.</i><br />
<br />
In 2012, the United States imported pecans valued at $282.0 million, down slightly from $286.8 million during 2011. Mexico remained the dominant supplier, providing shelled pecans, in-shell pecans and pecan products valued at $200.8 million.<br />
<br />
Variability in U.S. production, not U.S. demand, impacts buying power. From 1970 to 1999, imports (shelled basis) ranged from a low of 0.2% (1981) of total U.S. production that year, to a high of 52% (1986).<br />
<br />
<i>Insight: Chinese buyers have attempted to gain greater control of the buying process and sought to trade directly with Mexico. However, with the U.S. as the largest market and the largest grower of pecans, the Chinese have not been successful so far. U.S. continues to export significant quantities of pecans to China.</i><br />
<br />
U.S. pecan exports were valued at $486.9 million in 2012, up 30 percent from 2011. Hong Kong remained the primary destination for U.S. in-shell pecan exports, with sales reaching $165.4 million, a 69 percent jump from 2011. Vietnam was the second largest in-shell pecan market, purchasing pecans valued at $67.9 million, a whopping 115 percent increase. Mexican purchases declined in 2012, falling to $34.2 million. (FAS 2012)<br />
<br />
<b>Demand, Market and Price Elasticity</b><br />
<br />
Of tree nut consumption in the United States, pecans rank third behind almonds and English walnuts. Pecan per capita availability has held nearly constant over the past several decades, ranging from 0.38 pounds in 1968 to 0.47 pounds consumed per person in 2010.<br />
<br />
<i>Insight: Walnuts and even peanuts function as effective pecan substitutes. This constant demand and access to substitutes creates a narrow price range. At the time of the conversation with the Mexican pecan farmers, suppliers were getting prices at the higher end of a 100 year time frame.</i><br />
<br />
Growing Chinese market demand, continued U.S. buying power and favorable U.S. food export programs have combined to provide the U.S. pecan industry with access to expanding new markets.<br />
<br />
2012 data is a great illustration of price elasticity. The 2012 U.S. pecan crop totaled 302.8 million pounds or 151,400 tons, a 12 percent increase from 2011. The value of the 2012 pecan crop decreased 27 percent to $476.8 million. Total crop value declined as grower prices fell, partly because of increased crop size. (ERS 2013, NASS 2013)<br />
<br />
In 2011, average pecan prices dropped to $1.57 per pound, down from 2010 average prices of $2.43 per pound. Average prices also dipped for each of the five major pecan-producing states. (NASS 2013)<br />
<br />
From 1970 to 1999, U.S. average pecan prices ranged from a low of 29.8 cents (1971) per in-shell pound to a high of $1.14 (1992) per in-shell pound for native pecans, and from 35.4 cents (1971) to $1.57 (1992) per in-shell pound for improved pecans. During this same period, U.S. improved pecans averaged 78.2 cents per pound, while native or seedling pecans averaged 49.7 cents per pound an average price difference of 28.5 cents per pound. Caveat- differences in prices from state to state reflect national and local difference in supply and demand, as well as differences in quality, nut meats obtained, and market outlets.<br />
<br />
Next time you look at a pecan, and find a wild look in its eye, you can safely assume there is a story to tell.<br />
<br />
<br />
What do you think?<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
References: <br />
http://www.agmrc.org/commodities__products/nuts/pecans/<br />
http://aces.nmsu.edu/pubs/_z/Z501/<br />
http://www.wherefoodcomesfrom.com/article/303-2942/Pecan-Production-By-State-In-Order-Of-Production#.UtWX3PtZuio</div>
Mohithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09009295797075239480noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3903983363798646515.post-74959729116894499802014-01-14T20:00:00.000-08:002014-01-15T11:13:42.108-08:00Success with Disruptive Innovation and Acquistions and Integration- More Than A Short Term Play?<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<i>Executive Summary: Literature on acquisitions to manage disruptive change often focuses on the art and science of the acquisition deal and the short term post-merger acquisition program. For the acquirer, are other organizational factors which must be in place for sustained longer term success? Are both success in the acquisition deal and success at the 180 day mark into post-acquisition integration just first steps in transforming an organization to align with disruptive change? If so, what boundaries, hand offs and interplay must exist between the
organizational structures and related processes and the acquisition and
integration effort? From the Desk of Objects-In-The-Rearview-Mirror-And-In-A-Firefight-Suffer-From-Short-term-Bias.</i><br />
<br />
<b>Flesh Out the Problem to Build A Solution</b><br />
<br />
There are several approaches to handling disruptive change, however, let's drill down on one specific question:<br />
For organizations which leverage acquisitions and integration ("and" is key) programs to handle disruptive change, success in the acquisition deal and success at the 180 day milestone into post-acquisition integration all they need for sustained success with disruptive change?<br />
<br />
For simplicity, we consider a scenario where the acquirer needs to make just one acquisition in its inorganic deal strategy, even thought his thought process can be applied to multiple acquisitions in the inorganic change program. <br />
<br />
<b>Disruptive innovation is Tough for Organizations</b><br />
<br />
After a certain size and scale, organizations have challenges in nurturing and sustaining paradigm shifts. <br />
<br />
Size is a good first pick as a proxy for organizational inertia in accepting disruptive change. In The Innovator's Dilemma, Clayton Christiansen highlights the disk drive industry and how companies were not able to transform with technologically driven business paradigm shifts. On the other hand, experience with digital startups will tell you that they will go through some changes in strategic direction and the successful ones navigate these nimbly.<br />
<br />
Also, let's pick span of disruption as another factor in considering the impact of disruptive change. In an industry where sales channels are commoditized and thin, and operations as well as operational efficiencies are key, a disruptive shift in operations would be a tougher challenge compared to a technological product shift, with a long gestation period and long sales cycle that can easily be plugged into an existing industry ecosystem.<br />
<br />
<b>Specific Factors Which Make Disruption Tough</b><br />
<br />
Companies in specific categories of size and scale, in specific markets, have unique challenges with, and have unique (organic and inorganic) solutions for, handling disruptive change. Smaller startups may find it easier to change direction and compete head to head in their new space, compared to larger organizations.<br />
<br />
Would you pick more factors to identify a unique set of challenges and solutions for disruptive innovation?<br />
<br />
Rate of change in the market?<br />
Investments (not just money) required in addressing disruptive change?<br />
Rate of adoption of disruptive change in the market? <br />
Ratio of investments for disruptive change versus run of business size and scale of operations?<br />
<br />
Any other factors you would consider?<br />
<br />
While I have listed just a few factors, especially those that are external to the organization, this line of thought would help us structure the distinct categories of challenges and solutions for specific data sets. <br />
<br />
Driving the common understanding of its common challenges and solutions through an organization would be invaluable for more effective decisions in finance, corporate development and business development roles. This would be an important internal factor in handling and managing disruptive change.<br />
<br />
As we delve into this list, you will find that the challenges and solutions set may vary at the sector, sub-sector, company and even the business problem level.<br />
<br />
<b>Acquisitions and Disruptive Change</b><br />
<br />
A company with a sustained, successful acquisition strategy for disruptive change is an outlier.<br />
<br />
There are examples from the Pharmaceutical and Technology industries, in outlier companies like EMC and Cisco, around their solutions to the "acquisition and integration" of disruptive innovation. Some thoughts are here:<br />
http://reflectionsblog.emc.com/2012/06/explaining-emcs-success-in-ma.html<br />
<br />
<b>Questions Illuminate the Problem</b><br />
<br />
Given the broader challenges in assimilating disruptive change, would you tailor your acquisition and integration strategy to the unique challenges and solutions set at the sector, sub sector, company and business problem level?<br />
<br />
What factors would you pick to identify a unique set of challenges and solutions for "acquisition and integration" for disruptive innovation?<br />
<br />
Is the "acquisition and integration strategy" for disruptive innovation a subset of the overarching problem of handling disruptive change in an organization?<br />
<br />
If not, what would be time horizon for the "acquisition and integration strategy" to play out for the acquisition to be deemed a success? In this case, would success really be measured by how the company has handled disruptive change?<br />
<br />
If so, what boundaries, hand offs and interplay must exist between the organizational structures and related processes and the acquisition and integration effort?<br />
<br />
<b> Magic Bullets?</b><br />
<br />
In this case, one approach could be to promote a federated organizational structure, set up functions as services to different units, and tailor unit performance monitoring and corporate services to its set of challenges and solutions. Is that a magic bullet, or does that need some further thought and tailoring?<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
What do you think?</div>
Mohithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09009295797075239480noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3903983363798646515.post-76332169425436301652013-12-08T20:43:00.000-08:002013-12-08T20:43:31.005-08:00Android Platform: Jellybean, Kit-Kat... what next?<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<i>Executive Summary: From the Desk of If-You-Get-The-Name-Right-The-Rest-Will-Follow.</i><br />
<br />
There might be a trend here: Icecream Sandwitch, Jellybean, Kit-Kat... Latkes? Would you like it with apple sauce or sugar?<br />
<br />
(Yes, it is the season for some savory Latkes too.)<br />
<br />
What do you think?<br />
<br />
</div>
Mohithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09009295797075239480noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3903983363798646515.post-54797244159139764042013-07-04T08:25:00.002-07:002013-08-01T15:47:05.758-07:00Douglas Engelbart. Innovator.<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Douglas Engelbart. Innovator.<br />
<br />
For helping us understand what innovation really means. For laying the foundations of what would become Technology industry sectors.</div>
Mohithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09009295797075239480noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3903983363798646515.post-27544189359362520302013-03-06T17:44:00.000-08:002013-03-06T22:22:15.986-08:00Innovation, Risk-taking, Incentives, and Trust<i><b><i><b>What tools can </b></i>most organizations, which exist in the spectrum between the Fox and the Hedgehog, leverage to build success through trust *and* risk-taking?</b></i><br />
<br />
<i>Executive Summary: How does an organization balance the pressures of building trust through, and incentivizing, sustained successful execution, with the need for some form of risk-taking (with positive outcomes). </i><i><i>Are common control structures like bonuses enough? </i>Does innovation have a role to play here? From the desk of They-May-Be-Buzzwords-But-You-Still-Have-To-Make-Hard-Decisions-About-Them</i>.<br />
<br />
<b>Overview </b><br />
Anyone involved with a business- from a startup to a Fortune 10 company- has dealt with the trade-offs involved in building trust across decision makers in the organization, managing levels of risk-taking (high, or low, as required), and structuring organizational incentives. In the middle of all this is the need for transparency, which is fulfilled via measurements and reporting as an accounting function.<br />
<br />
The key here is is risk-taking for positive outcomes. This could be an imperative in hypercompetitive markets (Ref. Clayton Christiansen in Innovator's Dilemma). Examples of risk-takers for positive outcomes include Jeff Bezos and Steve Jobs.<br />
<br />
What approaches can help us manage these parameters? Does innovation have a role to play?<br />
<br />
<b>Kicking off the Thought Process and the Initial Hypothesis</b><br />
An Accounting researcher***, who I happened to have the pleasure of listening to recently, tackled the topic of business trust and the role of accounting, in which two things stood out:<br />
1. A "laboratory experiment" seemed to indicate that record keeping, as a function of measurement in accounting, helped build trust across multiple transactions between anonymous parties,<br />
2. Bonuses- as a function of incentives, which in turn are a function of organizational control- are better tools than penalties for trust within an organization.<br />
<br />
This led me to think about the relationship between trust and risk-taking, and specifically this relationship:<br />
Trust > Bonus Incentives > Risk-Taking<br />
<br />
The hypothesis is that bonuses, as a means of control, are not great for some types of risk-taking.<br />
<br />
<b>Paradigms from Strategy and from Psychology</b><br />
The "mom" readers of this post would point out the abundance of literature around child development and types of positive reinforcement. Case in point, this article:<br />
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/05/opinion/sunday/raising-successful-children.html?pagewanted=all<br />
<br />
Some strategic thinking readers might also frame this as a Fox vs. Hedgehog problem. Their point could be that organization must clearly choose between being a fox and being a hedgehog. If If you want your organization to focus on repeatable execution, then bonuses work well under the hedgehog paradigm.<br />
<br />
In reality, most organizations have to do a balancing act between the two. So, how do you solve this problem for most organizations?<br />
<br />
<b>Some Pathways Towards Resolution</b><br />
Here are a couple of thoughts:<br />
1. Personnel:<br />
Jack Welch has stated previously that, at GE, he looked for folks who had some failure under their belt. I take that as a proxy for an appetite of risk taking and an understanding of its potential consequences. <br />
2. Innovation Program:<br />
If bonus incentives are not helping with an organizational desire for risk-taking, then the positive reinforcement incentives need a more refined structuring. Innovation programs fill this gap for a more refined structuring.<br />
<br />
<b>Innovation</b><br />
Several approaches to innovation are available to help make the appropriate trade-offs in the spectrum between the Fox and the Hedgehog. These focus on making innovation flexible and adaptable, and are available commercially, as well as in research literature.<br />
<br />
However, structuring an innovation program in an organization is never easy, especially when it pertains to the core activity of a business unit, or even an organization. Enabling risk-taking though innovation requires a level of communication and buy-in across the organization that may take some time and sustained effort to achieve.<br />
<br />
Do innovation programs at Google, Yahoo, and Amazon have interesting tales to tell? I have also previously posted about Netflix on this front:<br />
1> Netflix bids for Original Programming: http://insightplusideas.blogspot.com/2011/03/innovation-and-tactics-series-netflix.html<br />
2> Netflix and Organizational Capabilities: http://insightplusideas.blogspot.com/2011/03/netflix-and-organizational-capabilities.html <br />
<br />
How would these contrast against innovation at a bank, at a perishable goods supplier and at a metals company?<br />
<br />
Would an organizational skeptic call the innovation program old wine in a new bottle? Or is it all about results, and a rose by any other name is still a rose? Amazon has invested in risks for positive outcomes despite negative signals from the stock markets. Jeff Bezos had apparently asked potential CFOs if they had invented anything.<br />
<br />
What do you think?<br />
<br />
<br />
*** Many thanks to Dr. Kristy Towry at Emory.<br />
<br />Mohithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09009295797075239480noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3903983363798646515.post-6753397904278127232012-05-19T17:00:00.000-07:002012-10-07T21:40:19.005-07:00Film Industry, Digitalization and Creative Empowerment: "Side by Side"<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<em>Executive Summary: In the context of the excellent documentary, "Side By Side", here is a quick snapshot of digitalization's impact on the film industry along the dimensions of film making process, creativity, innovation, innovation collaboration, end product quality-trade offs between digital and film, the human factor, and history and trends. Is it digital vs. film, or digital and film? Or is this debate a distraction? From the desk of No-Industry-Is-An-Island-Unto-Itself.</em><br />
<br />
<strong>Overview</strong><br />
<br />
Digitalization has impacted our lives in many ways, specifically, how we- <br />
- Connect with people, <br />
- Search for, find, and utilize information and entertainment, and, <br />
- Get things done.<br />
<br />
Over the years, there has been quite a bit of news about digitalization's impact on the publishing industry (you could blame the NYT's media desk for a lot of it). <a href="http://insightplusideas.blogspot.com/2011/07/news-new-york-times-and-movie-about.html" target="_blank">I have talked about a "fly on the wall" documentary, "Page One: Inside The New York Times", which describes the impact, here</a>. <br />
<br />
On the other hand, there has been relatively less news about digitalization's impact on the film industry beyond the usual reviews about special effects laden movies. <br />
<br />
How has the film industry been dealing with the digitalization of the world around them?<br />
<br />
<strong>Some Initial Questions</strong><br />
<br />
Waiting in a standby line for the sold out film, "Side by Side", at the Tribeca Film Festival, I roped in fellow film enthusiasts, waiting in line, into an interesting discussion about digital technology's impact on the film industry. Some of the questions raised were:<br />
- Do you lose out on quality (cinematic experience) with digital films?<br />
- Is 3D really better?<br />
- Would actors be replaced by machines?<br />
- Digitalization impacts jobs and people's lives- is it really a good idea if it does that?<br />
- Wouldn't human experience be lesser in movies driven by machines?<br />
<br />
<strong>Thoughts Before the Screening- Baseline Ideas</strong><br />
<br />
My initial reaction to a lot of these challenges was:<br />
- Human beings have been telling stories for ages- this is just another tool to help us tell stories.<br />
- Any narration would always have to rely on creativity in the story, and on how well the story is told.<br />
- Film was a technological advancement in telling stories. Digitalization is just another step in this story telling evolution.<br />
- Human beings would always want "real world" contact with another person (there are anecdotes about conversational skills of teenagers that seem to prove otherwise).<br />
<br />
I am of the view that this digital vs. film debate is a distraction. The conversation should be able the story *you* want to tell, and the story *you* want to hear.<br />
<br />
<strong>"Side by Side"</strong><br />
<br />
The documentary, "Side by Side", premiered at the Tribeca Film Festival, provides a bird's eye view of how digitalization has affected the film industry. It was surprisingly well equipped to handle a lot of the questions raised.<br />
<br />
Here are a few of the areas it covered:<br />
<br />
<strong><em>Film-making Process and Creative Empowerment:</em></strong><br />
<br />
An anecdote by a woman filmmaker summed up the empowering outcome of digitalization. A woman filmmaker (an actor on Girls, on HBO) admits that she would not have been able to make a movie if it were not for digital technology. She was daunted by movie making process as a complex film "undertaking". <br />
<br />
As the documentary slices through the various facets of film making you can see this creative empowerment theme through the various film making steps below:<br />
1. Movie development and production:<br />
- shooting and production<br />
- acting and actors<br />
- film direction, <br />
- cinematography and camerwork,<br />
- film editing, and,<br />
- post production<br />
2. Film planning and budgeting decision making <br />
3. Film distribution,<br />
4. Film screening, and finally, <br />
5. Film archiving.<br />
<br />
Digitalization has forced changes in the degree of creative control and influence asserted by each step of the creative process. While independent movies had embraced digital technology early on, fully aware of the detrimental impact on cinematic quality at that time, big budget movies appear to have begun to embrace digital technology as a tool for budget control.<br />
<br />
<strong><em>Movie making creativity:</em></strong><br />
<br />
The documentary covers while getting industry greats and pioneers, from George Lucas to Scorsese, to spill their guts about the creative impact of their choice between using film and digital media for their film releases. <br />
<br />
While some directors have relished <br />
- the flexibility and freedom of instant feedback, <br />
- the removal of the 10 minute shot, and, <br />
- the cost constraints of using expensive film for footage, <br />
some others have decried the loss of cinematic experience in moving to digital.<br />
<br />
One filmmaker was concerned that the quality of films has dropped drastically since anyone can now make a movie thanks to digital technology. Quote: "there is no taste maker". Christopher Nolan believes (and correctly so, for now) that digital does not match film in quality.<br />
<br />
Scorsese points out that for effective storytelling, you must return to the wells of human creativity. David Lynch summed the pro digitalization view on storytelling and cinematic experience aptly, by drawing a parallel with the publishing industry, through the analogy that "everybody and his brother has paper and a pen..."<br />
<br />
<strong><em>Innovation, and Innovation collaboration:</em></strong><br />
<br />
A striking example of innovation was the team behind RED cameras talking about how they rigged a camera mechanism overnight to enable the rowing sequence for "The Social Network" to be shot. While George Lucas had collaborated with Sony on "Star Wars: Episode 2" to move digital camera technology along, this is a different order of innovation collaboration.<br />
<br />
As with changes in creative control and influence exerted by each step of film making, the potential for innovation is leading to a need for greater collaboration and participation across each area associated with movie making.<br />
<br />
<strong><em>End Product Quality- Trade offs between digital and film:</em></strong><br />
<br />
The documentary pulls no punches on the technical details of how film captures images and how digital technology has advanced over the years. Digital technology, in many ways, is still short of the cinematic experience that film can provide. <br />
<br />
While digital technology is catching up, it has a lead in:<br />
1. Night sequences of the type shot in the movie "Collateral",<br />
2. Movies of the type "Star Wars",<br />
3. The active sequences of the type shot at the beginning of Danny Boyle's "Slumdog Millionaire", and, <br />
4. The rowing sequences in the movie "The Social Network".<br />
<br />
<strong><em>The Human Factor:</em></strong><br />
<br />
The movie making team is changing on the dimensions skills, creativity expectations, collaboration, creative control and turnaround time.<br />
<br />
"Side by Side" clearly lays out the human impact of this massive change. George Lucas had to call a summit at his home to deal with the backlash from his decision to shoot Star Wars: Episode 2. Some members of the industry accused him of shooting on film and claiming he was shooting in digital, because "digital could never be that good". <br />
<br />
It has been a tumultuous period for the film industry, with old skills being replaced by new, especially in functions like editing, and post production.<br />
<br />
<strong><em>History and Trends:</em></strong><br />
<br />
The film covers the gamut of the movie making ecosystem, from George Lucas' and James Cameron's big budget movie technology toys to a student at NYU's film school, shooting a film on a Canon 7D. Her take was that while the Canon 7D is not a movie camera, it allows her to focus on the story and turn in her project within the time and budget constraints.<br />
<br />
<strong><em>Conclusion:</em></strong><br />
<br />
The film industry has had its fair share of upheavals, like the publishing industry. <br />
It will continue to embrace the advantages of digital technology. <br />
Story telling skills will always be in demand.<br />
<br />
Finally, this all hinges on the movie goer enjoying the experience. That has been a different story altogether, as you can see in this article here:<br />
<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/20/magazine/how-to-enjoy-going-to-the-movies-again.html?_r=1&smid=tw-nytimes&seid=auto">http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/20/magazine/how-to-enjoy-going-to-the-movies-again.html?_r=1&smid=tw-nytimes&seid=auto</a><br />
<br />
My view? This documentary put me firmly on the side of the view that this debate is a distraction. It should be able the story you want to tell, and the the story you want to watch. Use the tools you believe will help you deliver and enjoy the experience your way.<br />
<br />
What do you think?<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
Mohithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09009295797075239480noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3903983363798646515.post-57010438829199920552012-05-15T21:00:00.000-07:002012-05-21T16:01:05.940-07:00Creativity, Market Domination and Innovation<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">Executive Summary: <em>Filter thoughts on creativity, competition, and market domination, through the lens of experience and business history. Play devil's advocate to the obvious- Is all creativity about finding monopolistic market positions? How about sustaining advantages through competition? From the desk of Silver-Bullets-Are-Often-Traps.</em><br /><br /><strong>Overview</strong><br />David Brooks wrote an interesting article on creativity, and the importance of creative minds seeking monopoly like market domination, for society:<br /><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/24/opinion/brooks-the-creative-monopoly.html?_r=1&ref=davidbrooks&pagewanted=print">http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/24/opinion/brooks-the-creative-monopoly.html?_r=1&ref=davidbrooks&pagewanted=print</a><br /><br />The article has some great lines, like "we sometimes confuse what is hard with what is valuable." I also found this article to be a good springboard to sift through some common thoughts and touchstones about creativity, competition, monopoly, and market domination.<br /><br />An example from the non profit world, ModelAlliance.org, and its founder, Sara Ziff, may well be textbook cases for David Brooks' article. To get us started, let's break the article down into two contexts: Creativity in Industry and Business, and Individual Creativity. <br /><br /><strong>A. Creativity in</strong> <strong>Industry and Business:</strong><br />Let's pick key thoughts in the article around this context and find supporting cases for them. <br /><br /><strong><em>Quote 1:</em></strong> "We often shouldn’t seek to be really good competitors. We should seek to be really good monopolists." <br />If you are familiar with the different flavors of innovation, David Brooks appears to be saying that breakthrough, disruptive innovation trumps incremental innovation.<br />Let's take Pharma industry as an example- the policy support for orphan drugs dovetails with this view.<br />In the technology industry, Facebook could be touted as an example of this strategy.<br /><br /><strong><em>Quote 2:</em></strong> "It’s often more valuable to create a new market and totally dominate it."<br />Besides Facebook, Apple products like the iPod, iPhone and the iPad come to mind.<br /><br /><strong><em>Quote 3:</em></strong> "The competitive spirit capitalism engenders can sometimes inhibit the creativity it requires."<br />Clayton Christiansen's examples from the hypercompetitive hard disk industry seem to support this. Business is littered with examples, where an organization's momentum often prevents it from acting differently, when required, to maintain leadership through market change. IBM had to face a major crisis to undergo change.<br /><br /><strong><em>Quote 4:</em></strong> "Value to society is often bigger (with dominant market positions)".<br />Facebook is being valued at over $100 Billion. That is a useful yardstick for impact on society.<br /><br /><strong><em>Following this train of thought leads to these questions:<br />1. First Mover Advantage:</em></strong> <br />Are we only talking about the first mover advantage here? <br />There are very few business contexts where a first mover maintains a competition free market position indefinitely, or for a long time. <br /><br /><strong><em>2. Sustaining the first mover advantage:</em></strong> <br />Once the market has been created, would you need skill in competition to find dominating differentiation, and to maintain profit margins? <br />Would you call that incremental innovation? <br />Or would you call that moving the market/ shifting the goal posts every time competition makes a move? <br />The current Apple iPhone 4S, and iPhone 5 rumors, are examples of this tactic.<br /><br /><strong><em>3. Supporting Environment:</em></strong> <br />What kind of industry, business, public policy and cultural environment would support this consistently? <br />Would society be able to substantially increase the number of disruptively innovative people, and also allow a significant percentage of them to demonstrate achievements at a significant scale in society (these are two separate things)?<br /><br /><strong><em>4. Impact on Society:</em></strong><br />Given that several world economies have lost out on manufacturing exports, where sustained, incremental innovation is important, would it be fair to call breakthrough innovation a silver bullet?<br />Would a "portfolio" strategy toward innovation be more effective, whether active or passive (creating the right conditions for all type of innovation to prosper)?<br /><br /><br /><strong>B. Individual Creativity:</strong><br />An individual's decision paths are complex, and heavily driven by the environment he/ she operates in. However let's simplify this section with some "devil's advocate" questions:<br /><br /><strong><em>Quote 1:</em></strong> "Instead of being fastest around the tracks everybody knows, creative people move adaptively through wildernesses nobody knows."<br />This is a great description of one type of creativity. This type of person would be in the same category as Beethoven and Picasso. If even Steve Jobs could be said to have x number of great products in him, would you say this type of creativity is common?<br />What social, economic and cultural context would you need to harness this creativity?<br /><br /><strong><em>Quote 2:</em></strong> "Competition has trumped value-creation."<br />In an effort to create value, wouldn't you need skill at competing for resources to achieve your monopolistic position?<br /><br /><strong>Summary</strong><br />Creativity and innovation come in many flavors. Diverse social, economic, cultural, and market structures may be required to support them all. Can we tweak these structures to support one type of creativity and innovation, with the intention of benefiting society more? Would it work, i.e. would it truly benefit society?<br /><br /><br />What do you think?<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /></div>Mohithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09009295797075239480noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3903983363798646515.post-65757864709537040212012-04-15T15:26:00.000-07:002012-05-21T16:01:05.960-07:00Consumer Behavior Changes due to Technology.<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><em></em><br /><em></em><br /><em><div class="kH"><strong>Are there some "behavioral ecosystems" (driven by technology, or otherwise) and "contexts" that are simply "better" for human behavior? Are there "contexts" that "stretch" human behavior?</strong><br /></div></em><br /><div class="kH"><em>Executive Summary: A quick three pronged approach- a question to start us thinking about the impact technology has on the world we live in, a thought experiment to help us think through this impact, and then some quick thoughts as a check, and as an inflamatory contrast, to throw our own thinking in sharp relief. From the desk of Three-Pointers-Aren't-Just-All-Basketball.</em></div><br /><div></div><strong>The Question</strong><br /><br />A conversation with some bright digital media folks bubbled up this question: how has technology changed consumer behavior?<br /><br /><div></div>To each of us, the answer may be obvious, however, it is well worth stepping back and taking a moment to think through this as an exercise. This helps us become more aware of technology's impact on consumer behavior.<br /><br /><div></div><strong>A Thought Experiment</strong><br /><br />Here is a visualization thought experiment, with apologies to the GEICO Caveman- The Neanderthal cave paintings were a "Gossip Girl" of the age. <br /><br /><div></div><strong>Some Quick Answers</strong><br /><br /><strong><em>A wise, experienced response:</em></strong><br />Within the framework of behavior in a country, nothing much has really changed. The context? As far back as the 80's and across the pond, folks were leveraging consumer analytics to sell financial products (Hats off, Ritesh).<br /><br /><div></div><div><strong><em>Another view: Technology impact consumer behavior by</em></strong> </div><ol style="text-align: left;"><li>aggregating numerous individual decisions, </li><li>making consumers aware of these aggregations, and,</li><li>allowing game theory to have a field day via exchange of, or lack of exchange of, information.</li></ol>The underlying theme across these points is the development of markets- either intra or inter country- and the development of context for human behavior.<br /><br /><div></div>I know, your first reaction here would be- do you really think Facebook, Twitter, and Groupon have not changed how we live? Sure, they have helped "cultures"/ "markets" evolve, by changing their context. However, have these forces of technology changed fundamental human behavior?<br /><br /><strong>The Twist in The Tale</strong><br /><br />This leads a different line of thought:<br /><ol style="text-align: left;"><li>How is technology changing the context we live in?</li><li>How does human behavior adapt to changed context?</li><li>Are there really new contexts that have not existed before?</li><li>Are there some contexts that are simply "better ecosystems" for human behavior than others?</li></ol><br />What do you think?<br /><br /><div></div></div>Mohithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09009295797075239480noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3903983363798646515.post-54761542038262115682011-08-07T21:18:00.000-07:002012-05-21T16:01:05.931-07:00US Credit Rating Downgrade- The S&P AA+ Club<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><em>Executive Summary: Standard and Poor's downgrade of the US credit rating can be evaluated in terms of signaling power, economic comparisons of countries, and a review of the members of the S&P AA+ rating club. We take a brief look at two countries with sovereign debt ratings the same as that of the United States. From the Desk of If-It-Talks-Like -A-Duck-But-Does-Not-Walk-Like-A-Duck... What do you do? Worry about a double dip instead!</em><br /><br />For a little while, folks were focused on the possibility of the US economy slipping back into a recession. Then, Standard and Poor's downgraded the US Credit Rating to AA+. There are various ways to review the implications of this move. Below are three. We take a quick look at two countries in the S&P AA+ club. This is just a quick look, since my take is that the core focus needs to be the possibility of a double dip recession.<br /><br /><strong>1. Signaling Power:</strong><br /><br />Review and compare economic fundamentals across the OECD and come to your own conclusion on whether this credit rating event is a response to an economic reality that have already been factored in by the market, or this rating provides new information (broadcasts a new signal?) to the market that needs an economic reaction.<br /><br />Here is a scenario analysis of the downgrade's impact on U.S. based financial institutions sectors:<br /><a href="http://swampland.time.com/2011/08/06/sp-downgrades-itself/">http://swampland.time.com/2011/08/06/sp-downgrades-itself/</a><br /><br />Here is another view of the impact of this downgrade:<br /><a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/07/usa-ratings-financialsystem-idUSN1E7760AD20110807">http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/07/usa-ratings-financialsystem-idUSN1E7760AD20110807</a><br /><br /><strong>2. Relative Macroecnomic Performance:</strong><br /><br />Review relative economic fundamentals across the globe, and reevaluate if there is a relative change in the US economy vis-a-vis the rest of the global economies, and if there is an across-the-board change in a set of economies across the global.<br /><br />Here is Standard and Poor's <em>view</em> of the European economies and that the US credit rating downgrade means for them:<br /><a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/44053959">http://www.cnbc.com/id/44053959</a><br /><br />At the bottom of this article below is an <em>opinion</em> of the coupling of the APAC region economy with the US economy:<br /><a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/07/us-global-economy-weekahead-idUSTRE77628V20110807">http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/07/us-global-economy-weekahead-idUSTRE77628V20110807</a><br /><br /><strong>3. Review Members of the Standard & Poor's AA+ Credit Rating Club:</strong><br /><br />To get started, here is S&P's sovereign ratings page:<br /><a href="http://www.standardandpoors.com/ratings/sovereigns/ratings-list/en/us/;jsessionid=6TZhT1HpLpw3Slb1QjJZM1NR4wLTThcH4MfNp4JHbLZcGVHG0yhL!603717864?subSectorCode=39&start=100&range=50">http://www.standardandpoors.com/ratings/sovereigns/ratings-list/en/us/;jsessionid=6TZhT1HpLpw3Slb1QjJZM1NR4wLTThcH4MfNp4JHbLZcGVHG0yhL!603717864?subSectorCode=39&start=100&range=50</a><br /><br />Let's review two members of this club:<br /><em><strong>1. Belgium:</strong></em><br />Here are some quick statistics on Belgium:<br /><a href="https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/be.html">https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/be.html</a><br /><br />Belgium set a record for the number of days without a government. If you think there's a message in there about fractious politics, here an extract about Belgium as a poster child from the Economist:<br /><em></em><br /><em>“Most surprising, perhaps, maddeningly ungovernable Belgium is being held up by many as a model for debt-crippled euro-zone governments.”</em><a href="http://www.economist.com/node/18988904?story_id=18988904&fsrc=rss">http://www.economist.com/node/18988904?story_id=18988904&fsrc=rss</a><br /><br />If you thought Texas was its own country, here are more details on the political stress and strains at work in the country:<br /><a href="http://www.economist.com/node/18988904?story_id=18988904&fsrc=rss">http://www.economist.com/node/18988904?story_id=18988904&fsrc=rss</a><br /><br />You could also review Belgium's interest rates in the context of the European Central Bank long-term interest rate statistics for member states.<br /><a href="http://www.ecb.int/stats/money/long/html/index.en.html">http://www.ecb.int/stats/money/long/html/index.en.html</a><br /><br />In contrast to the Economist article about Belgium a few weeks ago, the Wall Street Journal reports growing concerns about Belgium's borrowing costs:<br /><a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904007304576494042192351786.html">http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904007304576494042192351786.html</a><br /><br />Les Belges thought setting a record for existing without a government was worth a party:<br /><a href="http://www.france24.com/en/20110217-belgium-world-record-longest-period-without-government-iraq-election">http://www.france24.com/en/20110217-belgium-world-record-longest-period-without-government-iraq-election</a><br /><br />If you were Belgium, what would you do?<br /><br />What do you think?<br /><br /><strong><em>2. New Zealand:</em></strong><br /><br />Here is the NZ treasury's review of the NZ economy:<br /><a href="http://www.treasury.govt.nz/economy/overview">http://www.treasury.govt.nz/economy/overview</a><br /><br />The factbook (<a href="https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/nz.html">https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/nz.html</a>) tells me that New Zealand has the following key industries:<br />Food processing, <br />Wood and paper products, <br />Textiles, <br />Machinery, <br />Transportation equipment, <br />Banking and insurance, <br />Tourism, <br />Mining<br /><br />New Zealand's economy is coupled to the Australian economy, and you may review the industry sectors to understand weaknesses in the economy relative to the other members of the AA+ club. This would be my starter list:<br />- Banking and insurance,<br />- Textiles, <br />- Machinery.<br /><br />While you are at it, here is New Zealand's reaction to the United States joining the AA+ club:<br /><a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110806-700118.html">http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110806-700118.html</a><br /><br />If you were New Zealand, how would you react?<br /><br />What do you think?</div>Mohithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09009295797075239480noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3903983363798646515.post-21500169561101524542011-07-20T22:00:00.000-07:002012-05-21T16:01:05.824-07:00Economic Recoveries.<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><div closure_uid_l52esu="824"><em closure_uid_l52esu="904"><strong>Executive Summary:</strong> What would explain the length of the jobless recovery phase in an economic recovery? Would we find answers by comparing trends across recessions, or by comparing trends across countries, or by both? From the desk of I-Think-Therefore-Economics-Exists.</em> </div><div closure_uid_l52esu="824"> </div><div closure_uid_l52esu="824">The employment/ population ratio has hit a low point not seen in a long while: <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/net/page10.pdf">http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/net/page10.pdf</a> </div><div></div><div closure_uid_l52esu="793">While you can utilize publicly available statistics to make your own charts and form your own views, here is a way to structure thoughts around it:</div><ol style="text-align: left;"><li>How do you compare recoveries and the nature of unemployment across recessions in the same country?</li><li><div closure_uid_l52esu="775">How do you compare recoveries and the nature of unemployment across countries during the same recession period? </div></li></ol><div closure_uid_l52esu="786"><br /></div><div closure_uid_l52esu="786"><strong closure_uid_l52esu="789">Comparing Economic Recoveries Across Countries During the Same Recession Period.</strong></div><div closure_uid_l52esu="795">Since there have been comparisons between the European economies and the American economy:</div><ol style="text-align: left;"><li><div closure_uid_l52esu="794">How do the trends in the employment/ population ratio compare across countries?</div></li><li><div closure_uid_l52esu="790">Are European economies more likely to have structural changes in unemployment rates than the US?</div></li></ol><br /><div closure_uid_l52esu="798"><strong>Comparing Economic Recoveries Across</strong> <strong>Recessions in the Same Country.</strong></div><div closure_uid_l52esu="799">What does the increasing "length" of the jobless recovery phase in a recovery mean, as a trend across recessions?</div><div closure_uid_l52esu="799"><br /></div>Is there something in the nature of the economy, the nature of the macroeconomic entities in the economy, the depth of the recession, or the boom period prior the recession that has primacy in terms of its impact on the nature of the recovery?<br /><br /><div></div><div closure_uid_l52esu="802">Here is one pattern of Socratic thought that explores the two questions above.</div><div closure_uid_l52esu="802"><br /></div><div closure_uid_l52esu="802">Is the increasing length of jobless recovery phase in a recovery, as a trend across recessions, a function of:</div><ol closure_uid_l52esu="814" style="text-align: left;"><li>The increasingly service oriented nature of the economy?</li><li>An increasing dependence on large monolithic corporate entities over time as drivers of economic performance, with the dependence changing from direct hiring to a greater multiplier effect across the economic ecosystem in terms of dampening hiring?</li><li closure_uid_l52esu="812">The nature of work available to labor, which has changed from hyper-local activity, to increasingly being touched by global supply chains? </li><li>An increasing delinking of corporate performance, financial institution performance and "real" economy performance?</li><li closure_uid_l52esu="813">The degree of specialization, and education, require for work, requiring a greater time for individuals to unlearn, turn around and relearn? </li><ul><li closure_uid_l52esu="813"><a href="http://randomjunkyramblings.blogspot.com/2010/01/entrepreneurs-corner-baked-by-melissa.html">E.g. I talked about <strong><em>Baked by Melissa </em></strong>here, and surprise, surprise, it has expanded to four stores in NYC</a>.</li></ul><li closure_uid_l52esu="816">A greater population density in large metropolitan areas over time? </li><ul><li closure_uid_l52esu="816">This may be counter intuitive, if you think in terms of supply, where people band together to create economic activity (not everybody can be an entrepreneur). </li><li closure_uid_l52esu="816">However, if you think in terms of depressed demand, which translates into opportunity for economic activity of a certain type, this may be a worthwhile line of inquiry.</li></ul><li closure_uid_l52esu="818">Our lifestyles, which are less community driven, and hence make turnaround during recessions more difficult? </li><ul><li closure_uid_l52esu="818">E.g. This may be an effect seen in decreasing labor activism (ed- analysis to be done) with each passing recession.</li></ul><li closure_uid_l52esu="819">A psychological effect (animal spirits) of the nature of the boom period that preceded it? </li><ul><li closure_uid_l52esu="819">E.g. How long did the Dutch economy take to recover from the tulip boom?</li></ul><li><div closure_uid_l52esu="810">Simply the depth of the recession?</div></li></ol><br />What do you think?<br /><br /><div></div><div></div><div closure_uid_l52esu="825"><strong>Note:</strong> Throw someone a thought provoking point about economics, and ye shall reap many more thoughts in return. These thoughts were first published in a macroeconomics forum, in the week of July 16th, 2011. Thank you, Prof. Rosensweig.</div><br /><div></div></div>Mohithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09009295797075239480noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3903983363798646515.post-26201896523366729532011-07-20T21:00:00.000-07:002012-05-21T16:01:05.844-07:00Google Plus and Apps.<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><br /><div closure_uid_i1a31j="778"><em closure_uid_i1a31j="779" closure_uid_ot23zh="750"><strong>Executive summary:</strong> App downloads continue to explode across various mobile and non mobile platforms. Are apps secondary to the Google Plus strategy? No. Here is why.</em></div><br /><div closure_uid_i1a31j="780"><strong>The Overview</strong></div><div closure_uid_i1a31j="780"><a href="http://randomjunkyramblings.blogspot.com/2011/07/google-plus-and-facebook-and-apple.html">In response to my last post on Google Plus</a>, a wise man (thank you JJ) asked me whether I think products, not apps, are core to Google Plus' success. </div><div closure_uid_i1a31j="780"><br /></div><div closure_uid_i1a31j="780">App downloads across various mobile and non mobile platforms (have you downloaded Spotify yet?) are exploding, and both paid and free app download projections till 2015 indicate they will become an integral part of our lives, if they aren't already.</div><div closure_uid_i1a31j="852"><br /></div><div closure_uid_i1a31j="782">So, the obvious answer? No.</div><div closure_uid_i1a31j="785"><br /></div><strong>Google Plus' Avenues to the Apps Superhighway</strong><br />How does google plus play with apps? Here are some ways:<br /><br /><div closure_uid_i1a31j="792"><strong><em closure_uid_i1a31j="794">1. Android Mobile Platform Apps:</em></strong> </div><div closure_uid_i1a31j="792">Google already has a mobile app platform with ready apps. Make it really easy for the apps to integrate with google plus.</div><div closure_uid_i1a31j="793"><strong><em closure_uid_i1a31j="795">2. Google Products as Apps:</em></strong> </div><div closure_uid_i1a31j="793">Google products as apps are already a reality. Plug Google Plus into them.</div><div closure_uid_i1a31j="796"><strong><em>3. Leverage/ Create an App Partner Ecosystem: </em></strong></div><div closure_uid_i1a31j="796">Android already has one for mobile apps. Google plus becomes one becomes the ecosystem for social across mobile. <a href="http://randomjunkyramblings.blogspot.com/2011/07/google-plus-and-facebook-and-apple.html">As I mentioned previously</a>, the google ecosystem needs to spawn a few Zyngas, a few angry birds (while watching out for privacy trade-offs). </div><br /><div closure_uid_i1a31j="791"><div closure_uid_smsjvs="750">Easier said than done, right? The really interesting question? Can Google Plus also be the social collaboration framework for folks at work, and not just for folks at play?</div></div><div closure_uid_i1a31j="791"><br /></div><div closure_uid_i1a31j="791">What do you think?</div></div>Mohithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09009295797075239480noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3903983363798646515.post-59294088039739245702011-07-15T06:00:00.000-07:002012-05-21T16:01:05.948-07:00Google Plus, and the Facebook and Apple Context<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><strong><em>Executive Summary:</em></strong> <em>Google Plus' future is for Google to throw away. It is in the hands of the marketing team (because I think the product is on a Moore's Law-ish trajectory), and in the hands of the unknown disruptive forces hiding in dark alleys. Yes, this is an unabashed, quick and dirty speculation on Google Plus' opportunity. From The Desk of Talking-About-Google+-As-a-Social Network-Is-Like-Calling-Le-Louvre-a-Little-Hovel.</em> <br /><br />After living with google+ for a while, here are some key, qualitative thoughts.<br /><br />Throw away all that propaganda about Google Plus as a social network. Calling Google Plus a social network is like trying to fit an elephant into a refrigerator. Evaluate Google Plus against Facebook and Apple on the following dimensions:<br /><br />• Core Company Products <br /><div>• Digital Platform Integrating Core Products as an Ecosystem</div><div>• Flexible Social Platform</div>• A Gateway to a Digital Life <br /> <br />Now that we have got the obvious <strong><em>Big, Hairy, Audacious Ideas</em></strong> out of the way, here are the qualitative teasers I was talking about:<br /><br /><strong><em>1. For The Believers: </em></strong><br />Are you already a googlephile who cannot live without, atleast a few, google services? Then, Google Plus is, for now, google accounts on steroids, with controls and features staked onto it. <br /> <br />Very nicely done, though. Thank you. Not tacky at all. Now, segway to that Journey song from Glee. <br /> <br /><strong><em>2. Indicative Product Feature- Circles: </em></strong><br />Very nicely done. Again. Lives up to its billing as the slayer of social network privacy concerns. <br /><br />The circles model of relationships reminded me of a "brain's trust" model shared by a macroeconomics professor in graduate school. The graphical privacy controls makes you want to get comfortable by tweaking privacy to your comfort level. <br /><br />Note, I have not talked about features like Hangout. All of those also falls under the "Nicely done. Thank you" category. Why pick Circles? It jumps at you like no other Google Plus feature.<br /><br /><strong><em>3. Integrated Digital Platform: </em></strong><br />Picasa for pics. Videos.YouTube. Yeh. Google has some pretty powerful and mature products. Google Plus comes "preloaded" with some of these google products. Google Plus is a great way to sew these products together, making it a complete and a serious digital platform. <br /> <br /><div>Would you say that Google Plus is like an Apple ecosystem? Can it be like an Apple ecosystem? Can it be better than an Apple and a Facebook ecosystem rolled into one? </div><div></div><br />I think it can, but that is a different story, a different blog post. All Google has to do is light a few fires. Keep doing what it is doing on products. Keep integrating them. Oh, and spawn a few Zyngas now and then. <br /> <br /><strong><em>4. A Social Platform: </em></strong><br />Will Google Plus be a serious social platform? That would be a function of adoption (think share of social life) and switching (think identifying this as a primary social platform).<br /><br />Google Plus may hit 20 million + users by July 20. However, how many users will migrate from Facebook to Google Plus? How many will live in animated suspension between the two worlds? Finally, how many will use Google Plus as a glorified GMail service? <br /><br />What would be your estimate of an equilibrium/ steady state Google Plus user base? 150+ MM? 250+ MM? 400+ MM? While staying out of China (for how long?)? What is your sense of the tipping point when Facebook users start migrating from Facebook to Google Plus, <em><strong>network by network</strong></em>? <br /> <br /><strong><em>5. Privacy Controls: </em></strong><br />Yes, finding myself in a few folks' circles, when I hopped onto the platform, freaked me out a little. <br /><br />Also, Google Plus, better than google accounts, brought home the fact that I use a lot of google products and all that information is a sneeze away from being mapped into a digital life. <br /><br />If you live off GMail, this should not surprise you. However, since I can claim to understand a little bit about security, privacy concerns will always pop up in my mind. Maybe it is just me.<br /><br /><strong><em>6. A Gateway to a Digital Life: </em></strong><br />To borrow from a wise man I know (who is also on Google Plus) - can Google be my gateway to a digital life? <br /><br />The Pitch? Without much ado (to all the Google engineers, yes I am being simplistic :-)), Google can be my online identity, my Netflix, and my computing device on a cloud. Even as a glue for the google products we already (or will) use, Google Plus will be a formidable doorway. <br /><br />I am inclined to draw a bubble chart mapping how the Apple, Facebook and Google future state ecosystems would look 5 years from now. For now, all I will say that in his early days, Henry Ford would have been proud to call his company Google. Think Google Products + Android + Cloud + Google Wireless (Definitely Maybe?).<br /><br /><div>That's enough crystal ball gazing for now. I have stretched my definition of "key qualitative thoughts" far enough. Moreover, I would like to sneak in the crystal ball gazing in digestible chunks.</div><br /><div></div>What do you think? If you do, you know where to catch me for a lively conversation.</div>Mohithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09009295797075239480noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3903983363798646515.post-37962025410350970472011-07-09T08:49:00.000-07:002012-05-21T16:01:05.872-07:00News, New York Times, and a Movie about Publishing<em>Executive Summary: A review of "Page One: Inside the New York Times"- a documentary that provides an inside view of a market leader in publishing through some changes in the industry. From the desk of If-It-Sounds-Like-the-NYT-But-Reads-Like-Twitter, It-Really-Isn't-A-Documentary, It-Is-A-Reality-TV-Show.</em><br /><br /><strong>Introduction</strong><br /><br />The last time I posted about a movie <a href="http://randomjunkyramblings.blogspot.com/2008/05/movies-and-brands-iron-man.html">was the opening weekend of Iron Man, over 3 years ago</a>. This one is about "Page One: Inside the New York Times", a "fly on the wall" account of a desk at the New York Times.<br /><br /><strong>The Key Theme: Challenges</strong><br /><br />The movie gets three challenges facing the New York Times right:<br /><br /><em><strong>1. A Market Leader's Core Differentiation in a Seemingly Fragmented Ecosystem:</strong> </em><br />Where does the paper, and in comparison, the rest world, stand on news accountability, quality, objectivity, and transparency? The movie touches upon the difference between Journalism and activism, in the Wikileaks context.<br /><br /><strong><em>2. The Survival of Publishing as a Well Oiled "Machine", and Its Metamorphosis : </em></strong><br />The documentary covers Der Spiegel, Guardian and NYT partnering with WikiLeaks, and alludes to the shifting sands of the publishing ecosystem where a publisher could be a source.<br /><br /><strong><em>3. Funding to Sustain a News Enterprise: </em></strong><br />It touches upon the launch of the metered paywall at NYT (in line with the FT, and the Economist).<br /><br /><strong>Finally... The Opinion</strong><br /><br />As for the documentary experience, it stays true to the fly on the wall theme. Its like what reading Twitter is to reading the NYT. However, it does a great job of juxtaposing current changes in the industry impact the market leader, against its storied past. <br /><br />If you are looking for more detail on the trends, you would be better served by visiting <a href="http://www.economist.com/node/18904136">the Economist website (or reading this week's print edition)</a> here:<br /><a href="http://www.economist.com/node/18904136">http://www.economist.com/node/18904136</a>. More on that to follow.<br /><br />At worst, you may end up feeling like you watched some reality TV about a desk at the NYT, and even then, you will find a memorable line or two. "A textured life", for one.<br /><br />What do you think? If you saw the movie, what did you think?Mohithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09009295797075239480noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3903983363798646515.post-45750181520911128392011-03-24T04:40:00.000-07:002013-03-06T09:15:57.367-08:00Netflix and Organizational Capabilities<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<i><b>Executive Summary:</b> <a href="http://insightplusideas.blogspot.com/2011/03/innovation-and-tactics-series-netflix.html">While I previously shared a thought exercise (link) on the kind of capabilities Netflix can demonstrate against its competition</a>, this post is about the hard work that goes into creating an organization where teams work in concert, and in diverse ways, to develop these competitive capabilities. From the <b>Desk-of-George-Lucas-Theory-When-In-Doubt-Make-Star-Wars-Prequels.</b></i><br />
<br />
<b>Why am I talking about Netflix? </b><br />
<br />
Three reasons.<br />
<br />
<b><i>1. Innovation: </i></b><br />
Netflix has been called an innovator that leverages its investments into innovation effectively towards business capabilities.<br />
<br />
<b><i>2. Market Capabilities:</i></b><br />
Recently, there was news about Netflix looking at original programming, that kicked off this thought exercise on innovation and tactics below:<br />
<a href="http://randomjunkyramblings.blogspot.com/2011/03/innovation-and-tactics-series-netflix.html">http://insightplusideas.blogspot.com/2011/03/innovation-and-tactics-series-netflix.html</a><br />
<br />
<b><i>3. Distinct Context:</i></b><br />
Unlike the iPhone, Netflix has entered existing markets and upended them without much "confetti about cool". It's almost like a B2B company in a B2C market.<br />
<br />
<b>What does Netflix mean for Other Organizations?</b><br />
<b><br /></b>Netflix continued to invest in streaming capability for many years, before launching the product. This demonstrates a long term thinking about its business and its markets.<br />
<br />
How does an organization connect <br />
a. investing in long term capabilities, and,<br />
b. thinking about markets,<br />
In hindsight, all of this is as easy as pie. Lets look at the challenges.<br />
<br />
<b>Challenges with Making the Organizational Connections:</b><br />
<br />
Let's take two cases within two functions in an organization.<br />
<br />
<i><b>1. Finance: </b></i><br />
Say you are a business finance manager, and a business manager comes over to you about a prototype he would like to acquire and integrate into the company's product and marketing portfolio. How do you not only help him acquire the prototype, but also give him the leeway to invest time and resources toward patiently integrating an early stage startup product into a reliable portfolio asset at the company?<br />
<br />
<b><i>2. Marketing: </i></b><br />
As a marketing manager, say, you realize you need an organization wide communication and analytics sharing capability to meet the product and competitive environment in the medium term. What kind of marketing programs, and in what prioritized order, do you push, to deliver phased, sustained capabilities to your organization over the medium term?<br />
<br />
Suddenly, this doesn't look all that easy, does it?<br />
<br />
For managers battling to get things done within their silos on a daily basis, these are not easy questions to answer. Thinking about this gives you the scale of the effort that an organization needs to put into developing capabilities that impact its markets.<br />
<br />
What do you think?</div>
Mohithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09009295797075239480noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3903983363798646515.post-27362290516930233882011-03-18T04:51:00.000-07:002012-05-21T16:01:05.849-07:00Innovation and Tactics Series: Netflix Bids for Original Programming.<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><br /><em>Executive Summary: Netflix has been lauded for its ability to manage innovation, especially for its ability to translate innovation into real impact on its business. This post helps us think through some of the market possibilities it can target. From the Desk of "Is it a bird? Is it a plane? Its a... Jedi mind trick!"</em><br /><br /><strong>The News, The Question</strong><br /><br />Netflix seems to be making interesting moves in content production:<br />1. <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/03/netflix-plays-the-long-game/72611/">http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/03/netflix-plays-the-long-game/72611/</a><br />2. <a href="http://blogs.forbes.com/chunkamui/2011/03/17/how-netflix-innovates-and-wins/">http://blogs.forbes.com/chunkamui/2011/03/17/how-netflix-innovates-and-wins/</a><br /><br />The news reminded me of a curveball I recently threw to some very bright folks: <br /><em><strong>Will Netflix get into running movie theaters (or atleast renting them out temporarily)?</strong></em><br /><br /><strong>What Does The Question Mean?</strong><br /><br />The folks found the question interesting enough to pause to think it through. This is not because they did not have a (what may seem like an obvious) ready answer, but because it should, and apparently did, make you think about Netflix's context and how it is disrupting the context around it.<br />To rephrase:<br />1. Can Neflix groupon its at-home viewers into a high quality, custom generated "in theater" experience?<br />2. Can Netflix be vertically integrated in a niche market, while still serving what is currently its core market?<br /><br />All in all, how do these ideas impact its profitability and its margins? At worst, can a capability to pursue the option posed in the question be a useful negotiation tool?<br /><br />To dig a little bit deeper:<br />- What about Netflix's current position and capabilities (e.g. continued investment in innovation) provides it a competitive advantage?<br />- As Netflix get to know more of its customers better, how can it leverage it's information better?<br /><br /><strong>Structure Around the Question</strong><br /><br />Here are a couple of paths to making sense of this question on Netflix:<br />- Content Development and Production -> Content Channels and Distribution -> Content Consumption<br />Or the reverse:<br />- Content Consumers and Markets -> Content Channels and Distribution -> Content Development and Production <br /><br /><strong>Deep Dive Into The Market and The Consumer</strong><br /><br />Lets walk through the first way of looking through this process:<br />A. Who is Neflix's core consumer? What market is Netflix targeting?<br /><br />1. Viewers of TV and movie dvd like content "experience" at home with access to a mailbox and to an internet ready device?<br />2. Viewers of video content "experience" at home with access to an internet ready device?<br />3. Viewers of an entertainment "experience" anywhere with access to an internet ready device?<br />4. Viewers of an entertainment "experience" with access to an internet ready device or with access to a specific location?<br /><br />Now, you can define a spectrum of "experience" as well, from a streaming video "experience" on a small device while on the move, to a fixed location video "experience" of the IMAX or the "IFC Theater"/ "Indie Movies" sort. As for margins, isn't the IMAX share price hear its LTM high?<br /><br />Now that you have some lightbulbs flashing in your mind, need I say more?<br /><br /><br />What do you think? <br /> </div>Mohithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09009295797075239480noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3903983363798646515.post-86948207020172126822011-03-05T09:04:00.000-08:002012-05-21T16:01:06.037-07:00Ad Spend Trends in the US<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><em>Executive Summary: A quick check with *you* on your thoughts on media and ad spending in the US. The objective is two fold- identify what you believe are the factors driving the trends, and then seek your forecast for this trend.</em><br /><br /><strong>Trend: Advertising Dollars</strong><br /><br />I attended a conference where a respected businessperson emphasized a trend in the media industry. Ad spend in online channels was not growing the overall pie in terms of dollars. Instead the online channels were cannibalizing other channels. So the question arises- is there a disssonance between the change in the size of the pie, its slices, and consumer/ end user relevance?<br /><br />Older, publicly available statistics are available here:<br />1. Fred Wilson:<br /><a href="http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2010/06/ad-spend-trends.html">http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2010/06/ad-spend-trends.html</a><br />2. Hal Varian:<br /><a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/05/a-google-eye-view-of-the-newspaper-business/56360/1/">http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/05/a-google-eye-view-of-the-newspaper-business/56360/1/</a><br /><br /><strong>Some Macroeconomic Factors</strong><br /><br />1. Are economic conditions factors in terms of the overall ad spend pie? How?<br />2. Are demographic trends factors in the stagnation of the overall ad spend pie? If so, how do these trends play out in terms of the slices of the pie?<br /><br /><strong>Marketing Teams as Factors in Ad Spend Shifts</strong><br /><br />I also noted some opinions a few years ago that the move of marketing dollars from traditional media to online media would be slow because of deep, embedded marketing and agency relationships, as well as marketer mind share. <br /><br /><strong>Consumer/ End User Behavior</strong><br /><br />1. Has the user's behavior across the various marketing communication touch points, even with the addition of online media touch points, changed? <br />2. Has the user's reaction to these marketing communication touch points changed over time?<br /><br />What do you think?<br /><br /></div>Mohithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09009295797075239480noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3903983363798646515.post-48372676519959635602011-03-05T08:56:00.000-08:002012-05-21T16:01:05.909-07:00White iPhone 4, Hamann Mercedes and Nike AF1 shoes.<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><em>Executive Summary: The White iPhone 4 has been a no show. Is this an opportunity that Apple can exploit? A la the Hamann Mercedes or the Limited Edition Nike DJ Clark Kent AF1 shoes? Does that fit into Apple's portfolio of marketing tactics? For some structure to these tactics, see:</em><br /><a href="http://randomjunkyramblings.blogspot.com/2011/03/innovation-and-tactics-series-ipad2-and.html"><em>http://randomjunkyramblings.blogspot.com/2011/03/innovation-and-tactics-series-ipad2-and.html</em></a><br /><br /><em>From the Desk of Aerosmith-said-Lateral-Thinking-is-Hard-On-the-Knees.</em><br /><br />Carrying and using the "no show" Apple White iPhone 4 has apparently become a status symbol in silicon valley:<br />1. Why Apple can make a white iPad but not a white iPhone:<br /><a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2011/TECH/gaming.gadgets/03/03/apple.white.ipad/">http://edition.cnn.com/2011/TECH/gaming.gadgets/03/03/apple.white.ipad/</a> <br /> <br />Now, there are enough "shops" around the world happy to rip apart an Apple product, and some can even put them back together. In fact, you could even classify them as a subculture. However, can Apple use these custom built white iPhone 4s a as marketing tactic? <br /> <br />1. Geneva 2011: Hamann Hawk <br /><a href="http://www.autoevolution.com/news/geneva-2011-hamann-hawk-live-photos-32206.html">http://www.autoevolution.com/news/geneva-2011-hamann-hawk-live-photos-32206.html</a> <br /> <br />2. Nike's Limited Edition DJ Clark Kent AF1 Shoes: <br /><a href="http://www.nike.com/nikeos/p/sportswear/en_US/media_details?video=3&videotype=video&guid=31aa9ccc-445b-ce59-7435-55c77c81215d_id1253">http://www.nike.com/nikeos/p/sportswear/en_US/media_details?video=3&videotype=video&guid=31aa9ccc-445b-ce59-7435-55c77c81215d_id1253</a>& <br /> <br />How many companies you know would draw laughs, instead of being excoriated, for not launching a promised product or extension? :-) <br /> <br />What do you think? <br /> <br /></div>Mohithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09009295797075239480noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3903983363798646515.post-61976875982392780272011-03-03T05:07:00.000-08:002012-05-21T16:01:05.950-07:00Innovation and Tactics Series: iPad2 and iPhone Nano?<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><em>Executive Summary: Sometimes, the simplest things can be lost in the daily tactical maze. There have been a slew of statistics demonstrating that Android phones have been eating Apple's lunch over growth in marketshare. If you were Apple, how would you react to these market developments? With its product pipeline and brand dexterity, does Apple really care? From the Desk of Beatles-Were-Wise-With-Live-And-Let-Die.</em><br /><br /><em>... More: Think a simple 2x2 matrix covering- market penetration via existing and new products, adjacent market development via new and existing products, and entirely new markets via new products. </em><br /><br /><strong>The Statistic</strong><br /><br />Google’s Android becomes the world’s leading smart phone platform:<br /><a href="http://www.canalys.com/pr/2011/r2011013.html">http://www.canalys.com/pr/2011/r2011013.html</a> <br /><br />So, there have been rumors swirling about the iPhone nano:<br />1. Rumors of an iPhone Nano Continue: Smaller, Cheaper, No Memory?<br /><a href="http://onespot.wsj.com/technology/2011/02/14/351ce/rumors-of-an-iphone-nano-continue-smalle">http://onespot.wsj.com/technology/2011/02/14/351ce/rumors-of-an-iphone-nano-continue-smalle</a><br /><br />2. Opportunities & Challenges Galore for Apple with 'iPhone Nano':<br /><a href="http://blogs.strategyanalytics.com/WDS/post/2011/02/16/Opportunities-Challenges-Galore-for-Apple-with-iPhone-Nano.aspx">http://blogs.strategyanalytics.com/WDS/post/2011/02/16/Opportunities-Challenges-Galore-for-Apple-with-iPhone-Nano.aspx</a><br /><br />Could they be true? What should AAPL be doing?<br /><br /><strong>The Structure Around The Idea</strong><br /><br />Here are some steps to aid the thinking process:<br /><strong><em>1. Current Product for an Existing Marketing- iPhones: </em></strong><br />Apple smartly squeezed all it could through its relationship with ATT. Now, to seek increased market penetration, it partnered with Verizon. iPhones are still positioned as products that are a "cut above the rest", and continue to generate great margins for Apple.<br /><br />The feature pipeline for the current iPhone product line is strong and Apple can expect to continue to dominate the market.<br /><br /><strong><em>2. New Product for a New Market- iPads:</em></strong> <br />Apple at the netbook's lunch. No other product is near the customer's utility curve (read conjoint analysis). With the iPad2, Apple widens the gap with competitor products, and safeguards its margins. However, would we say that the Android's smartphone market is a "new" market for Apple? Perhaps it needs a "new" product for this "new" market?<br /><br /><strong><em>3. New Products for Existing Markets:</em></strong> <br />Really? See point 1. Even better, Apple's strong brand and positioning with its existing product line is so much "gold" that it can practically launch <strong><em>what were traditionally new products</em></strong> under the guise of extensions of existing products.<br /><br /><strong><em>4. Existing Products for New Markets:</em></strong><br />Make no mistake, the iPhone nano is a *new* product in the product development sense. However, in terms of messaging, the iPhone nano is brilliant in leveraging the consumer connection and premium positioning with the "nano" and pit it against "fancy-scmancy" andriod phones.<br /><br /><strong>The Bottom Line</strong><br /><br />Now, the questions that remain:<br />1. Internal Assessment: Do Apple's current financial position vis a vis its margins, and its future product margins trends, demand the iPhone nano launch?<br />2. Competitive Assessment: What does the iPhone Nano launch do its competitors? You can't expect them to shrivel up and disappear. :-)<br /><br />Stay tooned.<br />What do you think?<br /><br /></div>Mohithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09009295797075239480noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3903983363798646515.post-30032377094902353142011-03-01T05:00:00.000-08:002012-05-21T16:01:05.860-07:00Smartphones, Hypercompetition and Integrated Marketing Communication<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><em>Executive Summary: You are a second ranked player in a hypercompetitive market. You learn, from an independent research house, that your customers are more likely to buy your products than your competitors customers are likely to repurchase theirs. What do you do? Do you utilize this in your marketing communication? From the Desk of A-Kick-in-the-Shins-Does-Not-Always-Save-Nine. :-)</em><br /><br /><strong>The Statistics</strong><br /><br />While looking at statistics toward structuring a perspective on industry trends, I came across an interesting study on customer loyalty for smartphones, where, even though the iPhone outperformed Android phones in NPS (Net Promoter Score- a Bain methodology) metrics, (marginally) more Android users are likely to buy a similar device, compared to the number of iPhone users' likely to repurchase an iPhone.<br /><br /><div> </div>Waiddaminute? Did you read that right?<br /><br /><div> </div><strong>The Communication Opportunity</strong><br /><br /><div> </div>Given the hypercompetitive smartphone market, you would think the Android marketer has hit the jackpot. You can imagine Google Android folks rushing to their agency with a new brief to launch the next multichannel campaign (broadcast, web, etc.) in no time.<br /><br /><div> </div>You can even imagine a few briefs ("Android users keep coming back for more") and a few advertisements:<br />1. Android user sees a store sign, "New Android Phone" and buys one, while iPhone users are shown getting their grip right for the iPhone, or,<br />2. Android user gets another Android phone as a birthday or a Valentine's Day gift, "I always wanted another Android", or,<br />3. Voice over wraps up with "Even when independent researchers praise the iPhone, they can't help but admit that more Android users are likely to buy another Android phone, than there are iPhone users willing to buy another iPhone."<br /><br />... and many more!<br /><br /><strong>Some Structure and Strategic Thought</strong><br /><br /><div> </div>The standard approach may be pretty simple in the abstract: Corporate Strategy -> Market Strategy -> Communications Strategy -> Portfolio of Communications Tactics. However, things aren't as straightforward in the "real world", are they? <br /><br />If you were an Android marketer who finds this statistic, you would consider a few things, not necessarily in a top down, structured manner:<br /><br /><div> </div><strong><em>1. Source and quality of information:</em></strong> <br />Is the source and quality of information firmly in your corner? Well, you'll take a firmly independent corner too, wouldn't you? It’s more than just checking if your competitor can throw a more effective/ damaging response with the same source of information.<br /><br /><div> </div><strong><em>2. Timeframe:</em></strong> Does this lead to a "multi-period game" over advertising where you do not win, or you have no first mover advantage, or both parties end up in an expensive stalemate with a negative outcome for you? Coke vs. Pepsi advertising is an example. Also, think about Pepsi stepping back from Superbowl advertising in 2010.<br /><br /><div> </div><strong><em>3. Communication Themes:</em></strong> What is Android's driving theme for the season or for the year? What is Android's multi-year communication and branding strategy? Does this drop in the ocean create ripples that turn in tsunamis, or should this drop be assimilated quietly using different tactics?<br /><br /><div> </div><strong><em>4. Portfolio of Tactics:</em></strong> Does the Android team have a portfolio of tactics aligned with its communication and branding strategy? Does the portfolio explicitly accept or reject this opportunity?<br /><br /><strong>Digging into the Details</strong><br />Let’s dig into a couple of the items listed above.<br /><br /><strong><em>Timeframe:</em></strong><br /><br />Lets take one question- Do you think there are season spanning advantages to pushing the message? Here are some hypothetical situations that elaborate upon this. Say, it's the holiday season, and Android launches the campaign based on this research. Does Android have time to make an impact on sales? Does Apple have time to respond right away and nullify the advantage? Can Apple hit back harder around the same theme at the next key sales period?<br /><br /><strong><em>The Source and Quality of Information:</em></strong><br /><br />The study, using the Net Promoter Score methodology, declares that the iPhone outperforms others in user loyalty:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.zokem.com/2011/01/in-the-us-market-iphone-outperforms-other-mobile-platforms-in-user-loyalty-by-a-wide-margin-android-is-second-blackberry-fourth/">http://www.zokem.com/2011/01/in-the-us-market-iphone-outperforms-other-mobile-platforms-in-user-loyalty-by-a-wide-margin-android-is-second-blackberry-fourth/</a><br /><br />Given the number of iPhone users that have stuck through a lot of thin (network, antenna, cracked case, etc.) this should not be surprising. However, as you scroll past the Net Promoter Score based results of Mobile Platform Loyalty Ranking graph, and down to Repurchase Behavior graph, you would note an interesting result.<br /><br />89% of Google Android customers would buy a similar device in the future. Compare this to 85% of iPhone customers being willing to by an iPhone in the future.<br /><br />Huh?<br /><br />Now, there are various perspectives to this:<br /><ol style="text-align: left;"><li>The iPhone has set very high expectations and is doing a fantastic job keeping its user engaged.</li><li>Android targets a different customer segment than the iPhone and phone’s pricing could be a factor. (Perhaps not for long-<a href="http://www.pcworld.com/article/219712/cheaper_iphones_why_apple_might_risk_its_brand_identity.html">http://www.pcworld.com/article/219712/cheaper_iphones_why_apple_might_risk_its_brand_identity.html</a>)</li><li>Also, iPhone’s AT&T exclusivity (for this study period) could be a factor in Android's stats.</li></ol>We can come up with a few more as we think through this. However, what do you think?<br /><br /></div>Mohithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09009295797075239480noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3903983363798646515.post-74835853985123258872011-03-01T04:59:00.000-08:002012-05-21T16:01:05.997-07:00Innovation and Tactics Series: Groupon Wants My Married Friend to Speed Date.<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><em>Executive Summary: A light hearted look at the marketing tactics arising out of Groupon. No, I don't mean Groupon...zi. From the Mark Twain Desk of Funny Bones at the Jeffersonian.</em><br /><br />Groupon wants my married friend to speed date! Really! Well, technically speaking, my married friend received a groupon for speed dating. I am sure you can see the humor in that. :-)<br /><br />The smart folks would jump to thinking of this as a marketing, even statistical, error. However, this could well be the Jedi mind trick of the year so far- after the cool VW darth vader superbowl ad. <br /><br />How? Here are some ideas...<br />1. Don't your married friends keep setting you up with dates? Duh, right? You would think their persistence factor would beat any email spam marketing tool known to man, or woman.<br /><br />2. Do you know what the divorce rate in the country is? This could well be a long term, relationship building strategy for a future target audience. Disclaimer: A bright, married friend suggested this when I put this up on Facebook, so don't shoot the messenger.<br /><br />3. Its an error- my friend would be one of the few, or many, random, in error recipients of the sophisticated, targeted statistical model used for the promotion.<br /><br />I am pretty sure you have some ideas of your own. What do you think?<br /><br /></div>Mohithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09009295797075239480noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3903983363798646515.post-49992527154878260562011-03-01T04:58:00.000-08:002012-05-21T16:01:05.913-07:00Innovation and Tactics Series: Putting Cool to Use- the iPhone at work.<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><br /><br />This is an old link and an old post, and I have it here because its an apt start to a theme I would like to pursue.<br /><br />The iPhone is cool. The iPad is cool. All that cool- what does it do for you? :-)<br /><br />Here's an example of putting cool to use:<br /><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NAllFWSl998">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NAllFWSl998</a><br /><br />Resonates more than Angry Birds? I bet Angry Birds wins too when more of stuff like this happens. How has technology made your life better?<br /><br />Next stop: iPhones and iPads for the working life?<br /><br />What do you think?<br /><br /></div>Mohithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09009295797075239480noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3903983363798646515.post-66961119950096873732010-04-03T06:17:00.000-07:002012-05-21T16:01:05.962-07:00Apple iPad : A Profile of a Technology Influencer / Opinion Leader / Early Adopter.There are studies about shopping behaviour and there are studies. Then, there are Confessions of a Technology Shopaholic. <br /><br />As a self-confessed gadget freak, I can see that the link below- a Technology Influencer / Opinion Leader / Early Adopter spilling the beans on a purchase- falls in the latter category:<br /><a href="http://shopping.yahoo.com/articles/yshoppingarticles/358/how-my-499-ipad-purchase-became-a-1170-credit-card-bill/">http://shopping.yahoo.com/articles/yshoppingarticles/358/how-my-499-ipad-purchase-became-a-1170-credit-card-bill/</a><br /><br />If you can't wait to hit the Apple store to see a decade long buzz on convergence and ubiquitous computing take a step closer to reality thanks to great productization and marketing, join the line. :-)<br /><br />What do you think? <br /> <br />--Mohithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09009295797075239480noreply@blogger.com0